NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	93		Excitement	8.6 [152]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +24.7%
Detroit Pistons	100		Comeback	2.4 [603]		LVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): -44.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23	0.05	0.19	0.01	11	73%	0.34	5	-0.12	8	75%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.03	-0.02	16	63%	0.19	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Maurice Evans	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.03	0.02	7	81%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.40	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.4	-0.08	-0.33	-0.01	11	55%	-0.06	6	-0.34	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.45	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.08,-0.15,-0.35,-0.45	-0.14	-0.32	-0.01	21	42%	-0.17	6	-0.28	6	100%	0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.25	0.25	0.11	0.15	0.01	19	58%	0.27	1	-0.02	10	100%	0.09
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.07	0.00	5	92%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.06
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.01	10	68%	0.11	1	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
Walter Herrmann	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.05	0.00	13	65%	0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	5	38%	0.02	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.06,-0.12,-0.18,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.00	0.05	18	33%	-0.12	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.7	34.1	19.5	28.8	4.0	45.7	163.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +2.8%

DET +16.5%

ORL -20.2%

DET +47.3%

DET +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	14.7	17.5	15.4	102.2	113.6	105.7
season	15.1	16.8		109.9	108.8
opponent	15.8	15.6		101.3	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.3	16.0	15.4	14.3	14.7
DET	16.7	19.2	18.1	16.3	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Evans	59	58	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.12	9	-16	25	14.2	15.6	-1.37	18.6	15.5	3.07
Jameer Nelson	64	65	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.37	9	-16	25	14.7	14.6	0.10	18.6	14.4	4.18
Carlos Arroyo	21	19	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.13	-12	5	-17	16.9	14.0	2.86	15.3	18.1	-2.81
Adonal Foyle	8	6	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	3	-13	15.9	14.6	1.28	11.5	18.0	-6.46
Dwight Howard	83	82	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-10	13	14.6	15.9	-1.28	18.0	11.5	6.46
Hedo Turkoglu	78	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.18	-6	-1	-5	15.1	12.2	2.97	17.6	16.8	0.79
Keyon Dooling	15	11	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.04	-15	8	-23	13.1	15.0	-1.88	11.8	18.3	-6.52
Keith Bogans	50	48	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.41	-2	-5	3	14.7	14.7	0.04	16.6	18.6	-1.93
Rashard Lewis	77	76	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.28	-11	4	-15	14.3	16.9	-2.55	17.6	17.0	0.61

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	82	85	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.27	10	-3	13	17.7	15.3	2.35	14.4	18.8	-4.42
Antonio McDyess	36	38	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.15	14	-7	21	17.8	17.3	0.53	17.5	12.7	4.80
Chauncey Billups	67	70	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.42	2	5	-3	16.8	19.8	-2.94	14.3	15.9	-1.56
Jason Maxiell	58	58	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.28	3	4	-1	17.3	18.0	-0.77	15.3	13.6	1.77
Richard Hamilton	63	66	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.29	-2	9	-11	17.4	17.7	-0.28	14.3	15.8	-1.51
Arron Afflalo	15	15	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	-1	9	19.0	17.2	1.78	16.5	14.4	2.11
Rasheed Wallace	57	59	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.18	-1	8	-9	17.9	16.8	1.11	14.5	15.1	-0.65
Rodney Stuckey	38	40	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.18	8	-1	9	17.5	17.5	-0.04	15.1	14.4	0.80
Walter Herrmann	3	3	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	8	-9	22.0	17.4	4.64	6.3	15.0	-8.66
Theo Ratliff	21	21	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	13	-19	16.9	17.7	-0.87	11.3	15.7	-4.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.31,0.35,0.53,0.69,0.79,0.9,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 89, UTA 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.61,0.85,0.91,0.92,1	92.6%
HOU 97, CHH 102	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.52,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.9,0.9,1	92.0%
NJN 96, BOS 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.76,0.65,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.96,1	91.3%