NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	76		Excitement	4.1 [992]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +10.5%
San Antonio Spurs	85		Comeback	1.3 [1087]		LVP	LeBron James (CLE): -25.9%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daniel Gibson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.15	0.00	0.06	9	89%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	9	70%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Donyell Marshall	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	12	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Anderson Varejao	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.03	6	53%	0.01	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.02
Larry Hughes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	8	12%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.26,-0.26	-0.15	-0.08	0.03	16	39%	-0.09	6	-0.16	4	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	12	57%	0.15	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.00	0.03	17	62%	0.09	2	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.01	-0.04	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.02	23	52%	0.03	4	-0.07	6	50%	-0.04
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	50%	-0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	7	14%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	3.8	35.2	19.8	27.7	3.0	32.0	150.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +25.1%

CLE -1.0%

SAS +18.4%

SAS +5.8%

SAS +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	SAS	NBA	CLE	SAS	NBA
this game	17.4	18.6	15.4	96.2	104.9	104.5
season	16.0	16.2		103.2	107.5
opponent	15.4	15.6		98.9	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	19.7	15.9	16.7	17.6	17.4
SAS	15.5	19.4	19.3	20.2	18.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donyell Marshall	24	26	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.02	3	-12	15	17.3	17.5	-0.14	19.1	18.3	0.77
Damon Jones	20	20	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.07	-3	-6	3	17.4	17.4	-0.04	17.9	18.8	-0.80
Eric Snow	1	0	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-6	3	1.0	17.6	-16.64	0.0	18.6	-18.56
Anderson Varejao	51	51	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.25	5	-14	19	17.7	16.9	0.83	19.0	17.8	1.15
Daniel Gibson	44	48	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.23	4	-13	17	16.7	18.3	-1.54	18.7	18.4	0.32
LeBron James	73	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-4	-1	17.6	14.8	2.81	18.6	17.7	0.89
Drew Gooden	42	46	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	-4	-1	16.9	18.1	-1.17	18.0	19.3	-1.39
Sasha Pavlovic	60	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.33	-5	-4	-1	17.2	18.1	-0.82	18.7	18.2	0.50
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	40	39	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.04	-18	9	-27	18.1	16.7	1.36	18.4	18.7	-0.38
Larry Hughes	40	39	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.04	-18	9	-27	18.1	16.7	1.36	18.4	18.7	-0.38

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	67	65	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.18	12	-3	15	19.2	15.3	3.95	17.7	16.1	1.65
Tim Duncan	66	65	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.26	8	1	7	18.2	20.0	-1.77	17.3	17.9	-0.61
Tony Parker	65	64	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.28	3	6	-3	18.2	19.9	-1.72	17.0	19.3	-2.27
Manu Ginobili	45	45	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.03	9	0	9	18.5	18.7	-0.20	17.9	16.8	1.07
Francisco Elson	26	23	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.10	3	6	-3	21.0	17.4	3.60	16.9	17.7	-0.79
Fabricio Oberto	30	31	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.03	7	2	5	16.2	20.0	-3.79	18.9	16.5	2.42
Michael Finley	37	37	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	5	-1	17.2	19.7	-2.52	16.0	18.7	-2.69
Jacque Vaughn	16	15	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.04	6	3	3	19.9	18.2	1.72	19.3	17.0	2.27
Brent Barry	14	12	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.18	-3	12	-15	19.3	18.4	0.88	17.2	17.5	-0.31
Robert Horry	38	37	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	11	-13	19.5	17.7	1.73	17.5	17.4	0.16
Beno Udrih	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	11	-13	12.0	18.6	-6.64	5.0	17.6	-12.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.83,0.83,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 89, MIN 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
ORL 84, ATL 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.2%
CHI 71, SAC 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%