NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	84		Excitement	4.8 [849]		MVP	Jason Terry (ATL): +13.3%
Atlanta Hawks	100		Comeback	1.4 [792]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): -17.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	100%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeryl Sasser	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Burke	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	6	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	9	54%	-0.03	0	0.00	10	90%	0.03
Chris Whitney	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Shawn Kemp	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	5	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	41%	-0.04	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Andrew DeClercq	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	0.03	4	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.10	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	18	47%	-0.07	3	-0.04	11	73%	-0.02
Gordan Giricek	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	10	30%	-0.04	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.02	8	0%	-0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.16	0.02	0.05	11	92%	0.18	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	16	59%	0.06	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.03
Dan Dickau	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	6	92%	0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	4	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	73%	0.02	3	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Dion Glover	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	13	39%	-0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	11	44%	-0.00	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	7	28%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.6	30.0	15.4	24.5	2.5	30.4	131.3
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +59.9%

ATL +6.3%

ORL -18.7%

ATL +3.6%

ORL -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	15.9	14.9	15.5	91.3	105.3	101.6
season	14.6	15.1		102.7	99.5
opponent	15.7	15.8		103.1	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.0	16.0	16.3	18.0	15.9
ATL	10.9	15.3	15.0	20.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Burke	15	16	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.09	1	-17	18	15.7	15.9	-0.26	18.9	14.1	4.74
Pat Garrity	36	37	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-14	12	14.8	16.6	-1.72	13.1	16.1	-3.04
Jeryl Sasser	36	39	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-11	6	16.1	15.7	0.42	18.0	12.8	5.15
Andrew DeClercq	26	29	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-11	6	14.4	16.5	-2.09	14.3	15.2	-0.95
Chris Whitney	28	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.09	-8	-8	0	16.9	15.4	1.51	17.6	13.8	3.74
Gordan Giricek	53	52	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.01	-5	-11	6	15.5	16.4	-0.88	12.7	17.6	-4.83
Jacque Vaughn	51	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-9	2	14.8	17.2	-2.42	14.7	15.3	-0.63
Darrell Armstrong	47	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.08	-7	-9	2	17.4	14.2	3.20	16.0	13.9	2.06
Shawn Kemp	20	21	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-8	0	19.7	14.8	4.88	17.4	14.2	3.14
Drew Gooden	53	53	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-9	2	16.5	15.1	1.35	15.0	14.9	0.06
Steven Hunter	35	37	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.00	-14	-2	-12	15.1	16.4	-1.24	14.6	15.2	-0.60
Tracy McGrady	60	61	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	-3	-10	15.2	17.1	-1.81	12.9	18.7	-5.82

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	72	70	0.64	-0.14	0.79	-0.06	24	-8	32	14.3	16.8	-2.44	16.0	15.5	0.56
Ira Newble	76	74	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.03	21	-5	26	14.2	17.7	-3.50	15.5	17.3	-1.81
Theo Ratliff	71	70	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.03	16	0	16	13.6	18.9	-5.27	15.5	17.0	-1.41
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	62	61	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.05	13	3	10	13.7	17.3	-3.63	15.4	16.9	-1.54
Jermaine Jackson	37	35	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.03	8	8	0	17.2	13.5	3.78	17.7	14.8	2.87
Darvin Ham	18	18	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	13	-10	15.1	14.9	0.22	17.1	15.6	1.46
Dion Glover	70	67	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	16	-16	13.8	18.2	-4.37	15.2	17.6	-2.36
Mikki Moore	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	15	-14	27.7	14.4	13.38	17.3	15.8	1.50
Dan Dickau	29	28	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	19	-22	18.2	13.5	4.76	15.8	15.9	-0.14
Alan Henderson	36	34	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.02	-3	19	-22	18.1	13.0	5.07	16.8	15.4	1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 76, SAS 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.83,0.83,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.2%
SAS 89, SEA 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
SAS 92, POR 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.84,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%