NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	87		Excitement	8.3 [227]		MVP	Andrei Kirilenko (UTA): +26.8%
Utah Jazz	100		Comeback	2.3 [674]		LVP	Deron Williams (UTA): -39.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	16	48%	0.08	2	-0.07	12	83%	0.04
Matt Barnes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0	0.04	-0.04	-0.00	10	64%	0.11	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Andris Biedrins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.05	12	50%	0.10	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	9	44%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	11	50%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23	-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	17	37%	-0.17	3	-0.06	9	100%	0.05

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.15	0.14	0.03	12	72%	0.29	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Derek Fisher	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.32,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.08	0.02	10	91%	0.37	4	-0.20	2	100%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	4	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.07	0.02	16	57%	0.05	5	-0.16	5	60%	-0.03
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.03	10	54%	0.00	5	-0.13	6	83%	-0.01
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	9	32%	-0.08	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.03
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	0.00	7	37%	-0.05	3	-0.09	10	50%	-0.09
Deron Williams	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.29,-0.34,-0.34,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39	-0.39	-0.24	-0.15	-0.01	11	9%	-0.22	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.5	33.7	19.7	36.0	2.7	37.0	160.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +34.9%

GSW -7.4%

UTA +46.2%

GSW -30.3%

UTA +6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	UTA	NBA	GSW	UTA	NBA
this game	11.8	16.7	15.4	86.1	99.0	104.5
season	13.5	15.9		105.7	107.4
opponent	15.0	15.2		104.9	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	10.1	12.6	13.0	11.5	11.8
UTA	17.6	15.1	14.7	19.8	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	58	57	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.02	-2	-11	9	11.5	12.3	-0.79	15.3	18.6	-3.33
Monta Ellis	59	59	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.06	-9	-4	-5	11.6	12.1	-0.54	15.6	18.3	-2.65
Mickael Pietrus	29	30	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.10	-4	-9	5	13.4	11.1	2.31	17.3	16.5	0.84
Stephen Jackson	93	93	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-9	-4	-5	11.4	16.5	-5.10	16.8	15.5	1.32
Baron Davis	92	94	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-6	-1	11.6	13.6	-1.93	17.3	8.4	8.90
Jason Richardson	64	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.02	-12	-1	-11	11.4	12.4	-0.99	15.5	18.8	-3.33
Matt Barnes	52	50	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.32	-5	-8	3	12.3	11.3	1.04	18.4	15.0	3.38
Andris Biedrins	58	59	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.05	-17	4	-21	12.4	11.0	1.44	17.7	15.4	2.28

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Boozer	81	83	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.10	11	2	9	16.5	17.7	-1.23	11.3	14.1	-2.74
Dee Brown	20	19	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.01	12	1	11	16.0	16.9	-0.89	12.0	11.8	0.24
Gordan Giricek	37	35	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.06	9	4	5	16.3	16.9	-0.61	12.3	11.6	0.70
Derek Fisher	62	62	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.10	7	6	1	17.1	16.1	0.95	11.6	12.1	-0.49
Paul Millsap	48	46	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.12	6	7	-1	16.4	17.0	-0.56	12.6	11.2	1.40
Mehmet Okur	73	73	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.02	9	4	5	17.2	15.5	1.68	11.9	11.6	0.27
Deron Williams	74	76	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	9	-5	16.7	16.7	-0.04	11.5	12.6	-1.11
Matt Harpring	38	39	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	10	-7	17.2	16.4	0.76	12.7	11.2	1.53
Andrei Kirilenko	72	72	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	9	-5	16.6	17.1	-0.55	11.5	12.6	-1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.33,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.78,0.75,0.54,0.85,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 83, DAL 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.52,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.65,0.71,0.58,0.7,0.59,0.83,0.77,0.72,0.85,0.96,1	93.0%
BOS 96, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.99,1	92.3%
GSW 88, SAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.79,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.53,0.66,0.6,0.69,0.78,0.94,1,1	91.9%