NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	75		Excitement	5.9 [647]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): +6.3%
Houston Rockets	84		Comeback	3.3 [596]		LVP	Carlos Boozer (UTA): -26.2%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	67%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Matt Harpring	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	14	50%	0.12	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jarron Collins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Derek Fisher	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	0.06	-0.03	0.07	11	65%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Deron Williams	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.06	19	37%	-0.02	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.00
Mehmet Okur	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.06	-0.01	14	20%	-0.18	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Carlos Boozer	-0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	17	27%	-0.19	4	-0.07	6	50%	-0.04

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	17	57%	0.19	4	-0.13	6	67%	-0.01
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.04	0.01	18	56%	0.17	4	-0.13	14	86%	0.03
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.04	-0.03	8	33%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	5	57%	0.05	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	11	41%	0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.0	29.0	18.7	25.5	3.5	39.3	144.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +60.0%

HOU +17.5%

UTA -17.1%

UTA -10.5%

HOU +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	HOU	NBA	UTA	HOU	NBA
this game	16.8	15.2	15.4	83.3	93.3	104.5
season	15.9	15.6		107.4	103.6
opponent	15.7	15.0		99.2	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.6	18.5	18.2	14.4	16.8
HOU	15.4	16.7	12.5	16.3	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	26	25	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-12	15	14.0	18.0	-3.95	16.6	14.6	2.06
Andrei Kirilenko	31	31	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.09	-6	-3	-3	17.3	16.6	0.73	13.5	16.1	-2.60
Jarron Collins	12	13	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	-5	1	12.7	17.5	-4.82	14.6	15.2	-0.63
Gordan Giricek	33	34	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-8	7	15.1	17.8	-2.72	16.9	14.1	2.78
Deron Williams	84	82	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	-4	-1	16.9	16.5	0.37	15.0	16.2	-1.20
Mehmet Okur	68	68	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-3	-3	17.9	13.5	4.43	15.0	15.5	-0.46
Matt Harpring	59	59	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.32	-3	-6	3	16.6	17.3	-0.73	16.1	13.5	2.60
Derek Fisher	63	64	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	3	-15	17.7	14.8	2.90	14.4	17.1	-2.70
Carlos Boozer	74	74	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.20	-11	2	-13	17.5	13.7	3.76	14.9	16.6	-1.71

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	88	89	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	-1	11	15.1	18.0	-2.91	16.7	31.0	-14.31
Tracy McGrady	75	75	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.28	7	2	5	14.9	16.2	-1.25	17.1	15.5	1.65
Charles Hayes	55	55	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-2	13	13.6	17.6	-4.00	17.4	15.9	1.52
Luther Head	47	47	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.19	6	3	3	16.9	13.3	3.59	15.7	18.1	-2.48
Juwan Howard	42	41	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	7	-5	17.7	12.9	4.80	16.3	17.3	-0.97
Dikembe Mutombo	14	13	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.09	3	6	-3	17.7	14.7	3.03	13.9	17.3	-3.41
Yao Ming	69	71	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.14	0	9	-9	14.3	17.9	-3.59	17.2	15.4	1.80
Shane Battier	61	61	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.08	7	2	5	13.9	17.7	-3.79	17.2	16.1	1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.32,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.23,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.74,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 89, IND 97	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.25,0.19,0.25,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.34,0.41,0.52,0.64,0.54,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.3%
LAC 86, ORL 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.58,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.83,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,1	93.0%
DET 75, SAS 84	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.71,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.0%