NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	75		Excitement	5.7 [655]		MVP	Malik Rose (SAS): +10.5%
San Antonio Spurs	84		Comeback	2.7 [681]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -22.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.08	-0.01	6	67%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	0.00	6	53%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	67%	0.03	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Mike James	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	70%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Richard Hamilton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.06	-0.01	13	58%	0.08	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.00	-0.05	0.03	18	47%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.12	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	7	14%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.19	-0.06	-0.02	7	24%	-0.08	5	-0.14	3	67%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.04	-0.04	3	67%	0.10	0	0.00	3	67%	0.07
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	8	59%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.05	0.02	11	59%	0.10	4	-0.11	7	100%	0.05
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	12	35%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	-0.04	16	47%	0.04	5	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	8	46%	-0.06	3	-0.07	10	60%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	3.4	31.4	16.5	30.5	2.7	34.3	140.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -4.2%

SAS +26.4%

SAS +20.9%

SAS +12.0%

DET -5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	16.7	16.6	15.7	87.2	96.6	100.5
season	16.2	15.9		99.2	100.1
opponent	15.8	16.0		92.7	92.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.1	17.0	18.9	15.6	16.7
SAS	18.3	15.0	15.4	17.9	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	61	60	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.10	4	-13	17	16.6	16.8	-0.15	17.3	15.2	2.06
Corliss Williamson	54	55	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.36	11	-20	31	15.9	17.8	-1.90	17.7	14.8	2.85
Elden Campbell	8	8	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	-4	-1	18.6	16.4	2.18	11.5	17.2	-5.66
Mike James	20	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-8	7	15.2	17.1	-1.89	15.8	16.9	-1.17
Mehmet Okur	25	25	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	-3	-3	18.6	15.8	2.80	16.8	16.6	0.22
Lindsey Hunter	47	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-7	5	16.6	16.7	-0.17	16.6	16.7	-0.10
Tayshaun Prince	26	26	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.11	-14	5	-19	18.4	15.9	2.54	15.8	17.0	-1.19
Richard Hamilton	59	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	2	-13	16.5	16.9	-0.40	16.8	16.3	0.56
Chauncey Billups	66	66	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.17	-13	4	-17	16.9	15.9	0.98	16.2	18.0	-1.85
Rasheed Wallace	64	66	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.33	-8	-1	-7	15.9	18.7	-2.79	16.7	16.5	0.22

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	50	48	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	4	1	17.8	15.1	2.62	15.6	17.9	-2.28
Hedo Turkoglu	64	64	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.02	17	-8	25	16.1	18.3	-2.20	17.3	14.8	2.46
Rasho Nesterovic	57	57	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.03	15	-6	21	16.6	16.8	-0.24	16.7	16.6	0.15
Tim Duncan	65	63	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	6	-3	17.3	14.6	2.75	17.1	15.4	1.66
Tony Parker	74	73	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	5	-1	16.6	16.8	-0.15	16.8	15.8	0.95
Jason Hart	7	7	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	4	1	18.1	16.5	1.63	13.7	16.9	-3.20
Malik Rose	38	37	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.28	-5	14	-19	17.0	16.3	0.68	15.4	17.6	-2.19
Robert Horry	14	15	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	4	1	12.7	17.4	-4.68	17.7	16.4	1.23
Bruce Bowen	51	51	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	9	-9	16.0	17.5	-1.46	17.4	15.5	1.92
Devin Brown	15	15	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.03	-4	13	-17	16.9	16.6	0.27	15.2	17.0	-1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.71,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 77, LAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.41,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.79,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%
HOU 88, SEA 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.96,1	93.1%
WAS 85, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.54,0.54,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.42,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.0%