NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	96		Excitement	6.1 [603]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +17.1%
Denver Nuggets	91		Comeback	1.9 [670]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -10.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.03	-0.05	11	70%	0.20	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.04	0.06	0.01	8	62%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	9	66%	0.14	2	-0.07	11	91%	0.05
Tony Parker	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.04	-0.03	23	46%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.02	-0.05	0.04	-0.03	21	45%	0.10	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Brent Barry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	11	69%	0.11	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	58%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Marcus Camby	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	7	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	0.01	20	41%	-0.04	3	-0.07	9	67%	-0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	0.01	-0.08	0.04	21	53%	-0.01	3	-0.10	11	55%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	3.4	32.4	18.4	28.8	2.8	35.5	145.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.2%

SAS +2.5%

SAS +0.0%

SAS +5.7%

DEN -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	17.7	14.7	15.4	109.1	101.1	104.5
season	16.2	14.0		107.5	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.4		104.5	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.4	18.3	16.6	18.6	17.7
DEN	13.3	17.7	14.7	13.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	55	59	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.16	15	-10	25	17.7	17.8	-0.13	13.9	16.3	-2.39
Robert Horry	52	56	0.56	-0.07	0.63	0.13	15	-10	25	17.5	18.1	-0.59	14.3	15.3	-1.02
Michael Finley	58	57	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.21	6	-1	7	17.1	18.8	-1.66	14.9	14.3	0.66
Tony Parker	72	74	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	0	5	18.0	16.2	1.85	14.4	15.9	-1.52
Fabricio Oberto	20	21	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.16	4	1	3	16.3	18.1	-1.82	13.6	15.0	-1.40
Tim Duncan	72	73	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.26	-3	8	-11	18.2	15.2	3.00	15.4	11.6	3.82
Jacque Vaughn	16	17	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.16	0	5	-5	16.2	18.0	-1.85	15.2	14.6	0.67
Bruce Bowen	62	62	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.39	-12	17	-29	18.2	16.6	1.60	15.1	13.7	1.41
Brent Barry	10	9	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.02	2	3	-1	18.9	17.6	1.35	14.7	14.7	-0.02
Francisco Elson	23	22	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.13	-7	12	-19	17.5	17.8	-0.25	15.1	14.5	0.59

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Linas Kleiza	9	9	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.01	-1	-4	3	16.7	14.5	2.20	17.8	17.7	0.08
Steve Blake	65	64	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.25	5	-10	15	14.9	14.2	0.62	18.3	16.2	2.11
Nene	65	64	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.34	4	-9	13	16.5	9.9	6.60	18.1	16.7	1.31
Marcus Camby	70	70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.35	0	-5	5	13.9	17.5	-3.68	17.8	17.3	0.54
J.R. Smith	32	30	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.16	-8	3	-11	14.7	14.7	-0.00	16.1	18.6	-2.49
Eduardo Najera	40	37	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.06	-16	11	-27	13.9	15.3	-1.33	17.1	18.2	-1.12
Carmelo Anthony	84	82	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	-1	-3	14.3	19.8	-5.51	17.7	17.8	-0.14
Allen Iverson	85	84	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	14.3	20.8	-6.47	17.8	16.2	1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.19,0.06,0.19,0.06,0.04,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 113, LAL 105	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.37,0.51,0.48,0.29,0.26,0.16,0.1,0.14,0.23,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.6%
CLE 101, DET 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.17,0.25,0.11,0.06,0.02,0	93.5%
MEM 106, ORL 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0	93.4%