NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	98		Excitement	6.3 [561]		MVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): +27.9%
Washington Wizards	92		Comeback	1.4 [920]		LVP	DeShawn Stevenson (WAS): -16.6%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.15	0.13	0.00	13	80%	0.33	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Drew Gooden	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.09	-0.00	7	62%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
LeBron James	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	22	59%	0.17	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.00
Daniel Gibson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	86%	0.06	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Ira Newble	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	4	25%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	11	46%	0.03	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	12	46%	0.00	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.15	-0.03	0.01	27	63%	0.21	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.04
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	13	58%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06	0.06	0.10	-0.00	0.04	13	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.05
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	10	30%	-0.04	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	14	24%	-0.13	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	0.7	30.3	18.8	24.1	3.6	38.8	141.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +48.0%

CLE +2.4%

CLE +29.5%

WAS -30.3%

CLE +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	WAS	NBA	CLE	WAS	NBA
this game	17.5	17.0	15.4	118.1	109.5	104.5
season	16.0	14.8		103.2	107.8
opponent	15.3	15.6		108.7	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	15.2	17.8	18.6	18.7	17.5
WAS	16.8	18.2	17.4	15.6	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Snow	32	29	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.29	11	-5	16	17.2	17.7	-0.44	16.8	17.1	-0.33
Drew Gooden	60	61	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.31	8	-2	10	17.1	18.5	-1.33	16.6	18.0	-1.41
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	68	69	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	2	2	18.1	14.7	3.40	17.8	13.1	4.76
LeBron James	78	79	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.28	6	0	6	17.7	14.4	3.32	17.4	11.0	6.35
Sasha Pavlovic	52	53	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	5	-4	17.2	18.0	-0.82	17.2	16.6	0.52
Larry Hughes	68	70	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	6	-6	16.9	20.5	-3.68	17.4	14.9	2.54
Ira Newble	1	1	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	6	-6	4.0	17.7	-13.68	1.0	17.2	-16.17
Daniel Gibson	21	22	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	6	-6	18.6	17.1	1.47	13.5	18.2	-4.65
Anderson Varejao	35	36	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.08	0	6	-6	18.2	17.0	1.23	16.8	17.1	-0.35

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Etan Thomas	52	49	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.32	13	-19	32	16.8	17.3	-0.49	17.1	18.1	-0.92
DeShawn Stevenson	58	57	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.19	6	-12	18	18.2	14.3	3.86	17.2	18.3	-1.09
Roger Mason Jr.	12	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-4	2	12.9	17.7	-4.74	16.8	17.7	-0.88
Michael Ruffin	8	8	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.02	-7	1	-8	21.7	16.5	5.28	14.0	17.9	-3.89
Brendan Haywood	17	17	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.08	-10	4	-14	15.6	17.3	-1.74	19.5	17.0	2.53
Jarvis Hayes	71	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.38	3	-9	12	16.4	20.1	-3.67	17.4	18.1	-0.66
Antawn Jamison	79	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.29	-6	0	-6	17.3	12.4	4.87	17.5	17.3	0.20
Antonio Daniels	84	83	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	17.0	0.0	16.98	17.5	0.0	17.52
Darius Songaila	39	40	-0.80	0.30	-1.11	-0.19	-21	15	-36	16.8	17.2	-0.39	18.7	16.4	2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.09,0.11,0.18,0.22,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.3,0.24,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.03,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 102, SAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.15,0.07,0.02,0,0	93.0%
LAL 118, DEN 108	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.41,0.35,0.41,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.33,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.09,0.02,0.04,0.03,0,0	92.6%
CHI 105, NYK 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.42,0.28,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.17,0.24,0.13,0.2,0.04,0.15,0.08,0	92.1%