NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	78		Excitement	3.4 [1131]		MVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): +15.5%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	1.1 [1180]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -12.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Wallace	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Maurice Evans	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.03	9	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.01	7	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.07	-0.01	0.09	28	52%	0.00	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Lindsey Hunter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Rasheed Wallace	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	12	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.03	-0.04	14	28%	-0.10	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.03	-0.02	14	76%	0.24	5	-0.08	9	44%	-0.03
Jason Williams	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.16	0.01	0.04	12	87%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.08	-0.01	0.07	7	69%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	2	75%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.01	9	44%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	15	44%	0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	3.5	33.4	18.4	28.3	3.7	27.7	141.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +55.4%

MIA +1.5%

MIA +6.9%

DET -10.6%

DET -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	17.9	15.8	15.6	91.8	110.5	104.4
season	16.9	15.5		108.3	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.8		102.3	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.5	18.8	19.1	14.1	17.9
MIA	12.6	15.5	15.9	19.3	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Evans	9	9	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.01	-2	-15	13	15.4	18.2	-2.75	20.2	15.3	4.95
Antonio McDyess	29	30	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.12	1	-18	19	17.4	18.2	-0.80	18.1	14.6	3.55
Lindsey Hunter	17	19	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-13	9	15.4	18.5	-3.12	18.2	15.1	3.11
Tony Delk	23	25	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.06	-9	-8	-1	18.1	17.8	0.25	19.8	14.2	5.60
Richard Hamilton	77	78	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.04	-9	-8	-1	16.9	27.7	-10.87	15.8	16.1	-0.37
Ben Wallace	56	55	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	-4	-9	20.2	13.4	6.82	13.9	19.2	-5.27
Chauncey Billups	72	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.03	-15	-2	-13	18.2	16.5	1.61	15.4	17.6	-2.21
Tayshaun Prince	70	70	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.09	-18	1	-19	18.7	14.3	4.42	14.6	21.1	-6.55
Rasheed Wallace	76	77	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.00	-18	1	-19	16.9	26.0	-9.05	15.6	17.6	-1.97

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	75	76	0.55	-0.05	0.59	-0.19	25	-8	33	15.3	19.4	-4.10	18.2	15.2	3.00
Jason Williams	56	58	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.16	20	-3	23	14.9	17.5	-2.62	18.7	16.2	2.52
Antoine Walker	69	66	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.02	14	3	11	16.1	14.4	1.72	18.3	16.6	1.71
Shaquille O'Neal	61	62	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	8	1	14.8	18.1	-3.28	18.5	16.3	2.14
Dwyane Wade	67	65	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.05	11	6	5	16.2	14.4	1.76	18.0	17.6	0.40
James Posey	44	43	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.09	4	13	-9	17.2	14.3	2.99	15.7	20.2	-4.47
Gary Payton	35	33	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.15	-2	19	-21	16.9	15.1	1.80	15.8	19.2	-3.36
Alonzo Mourning	11	10	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.00	3	14	-11	16.3	15.7	0.55	20.0	17.6	2.37
Shandon Anderson	12	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.03	1	16	-15	15.2	15.9	-0.73	18.2	17.8	0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 91, CHI 110	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
DEN 111, LAC 132	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.84,0.84,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
PHX 86, UTA 108	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%