NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	5.0 [845]		MVP	Gary Payton (MIA): +17.6%
Detroit Pistons	86		Comeback	1.9 [390]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -16.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.05	0.01	8	87%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.00	0.04	11	81%	0.19	5	-0.12	9	78%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	-0.00	7	71%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	3	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	12	57%	0.09	3	-0.06	6	50%	-0.05
Shandon Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	12	50%	0.01	5	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	7	0%	-0.13	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	-0.00	7	56%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	10	35%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.03	13	50%	0.02	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	7	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.04	0.04	19	44%	-0.08	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.05	0.07	22	47%	-0.08	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.9	3.5	32.4	18.8	27.3	3.6	36.4	149.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +76.2%

DET -15.3%

MIA +5.7%

DET -15.5%

DET -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.3	17.8	15.6	107.1	102.4	104.4
season	15.5	16.9		106.1	108.3
opponent	15.8	15.5		101.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	19.5	15.6	15.3	16.3
DET	18.3	17.5	20.4	15.3	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	28	27	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.17	14	-9	23	16.2	16.3	-0.07	19.1	17.2	1.99
Gary Payton	62	60	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.40	1	4	-3	16.3	16.3	0.05	17.6	18.4	-0.81
Antoine Walker	68	67	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.16	8	-3	11	15.4	20.1	-4.71	17.6	18.5	-0.84
James Posey	36	35	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.38	-2	7	-9	16.0	16.5	-0.56	17.1	18.3	-1.12
Dwyane Wade	50	50	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	2	1	15.5	17.5	-2.03	17.0	18.9	-1.92
Jason Williams	54	53	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.10	7	-2	9	16.7	15.5	1.17	18.9	15.9	3.00
Udonis Haslem	65	66	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.19	-1	6	-7	16.7	15.0	1.69	17.7	18.3	-0.61
Shandon Anderson	8	7	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	4	-3	16.0	16.3	-0.32	15.7	18.0	-2.27
Derek Anderson	4	5	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.03	-1	6	-7	20.7	16.1	4.68	16.6	17.9	-1.27
Shaquille O'Neal	50	50	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	10	-15	17.4	14.8	2.59	18.2	17.2	1.04

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Evans	8	9	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.06	6	-11	17	16.5	17.9	-1.43	19.6	15.9	3.65
Dale Davis	1	1	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.01	2	-7	9	4.0	18.0	-13.96	24.0	16.2	7.80
Lindsey Hunter	21	22	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.12	5	-10	15	17.3	18.0	-0.62	16.8	16.1	0.65
Tony Delk	9	9	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.04	-5	0	-5	19.6	17.6	1.97	19.7	15.9	3.77
Antonio McDyess	39	40	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-2	-1	18.7	17.0	1.62	17.7	15.1	2.61
Rasheed Wallace	58	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-5	5	17.5	18.5	-1.02	16.0	16.9	-0.82
Chauncey Billups	70	70	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-2	-1	17.6	18.9	-1.27	16.5	15.3	1.25
Tayshaun Prince	72	72	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.28	-7	2	-9	17.6	18.7	-1.11	15.7	19.8	-4.19
Ben Wallace	70	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.23	-9	4	-13	17.8	17.9	-0.16	15.6	19.7	-4.09
Richard Hamilton	72	73	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.28	-11	6	-17	18.2	15.2	2.97	15.8	19.6	-3.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.29,0.19,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 121, LAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.28,0.2,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	93.5%
DAL 105, ORL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.19,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0	92.8%
ORL 107, SAC 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.3,0.2,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	92.6%