NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	113		Excitement	2.9 [1211]		MVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DAL): +10.3%
San Antonio Spurs	91		Comeback	1.1 [598]		LVP	Robert Horry (SAS): -4.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	-0.01	12	63%	0.12	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Josh Howard	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.00	0.04	17	60%	0.11	1	-0.02	11	100%	0.04
Devin Harris	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	0.00	0.05	12	61%	0.05	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.03	0.05	11	72%	0.10	3	-0.05	7	100%	0.05
DeSagana Diop	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Marquis Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Josh Powell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	13	42%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.14	0.02	0.07	10	82%	0.16	4	-0.07	14	86%	0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	0.00	0.06	8	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	4	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	47%	0.00	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0.03	11	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	-0.05	14	44%	-0.00	4	-0.03	6	50%	-0.02
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	8	35%	-0.04	2	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.8	3.6	38.0	20.6	31.5	3.7	32.0	162.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +17.8%

DAL +7.2%

DAL +13.4%

DAL +8.4%

DAL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.0	15.8	15.6	125.6	100.0	104.4
season	16.4	16.3		109.0	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.6		99.4	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.6	15.7	16.2	19.0	16.0
SAS	14.1	18.6	16.5	14.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	77	77	0.59	-0.09	0.69	-0.17	26	-4	30	15.9	16.6	-0.73	16.8	10.4	6.39
Dirk Nowitzki	69	71	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.15	21	1	20	16.0	15.8	0.23	16.1	14.8	1.33
Jerry Stackhouse	58	58	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.16	19	3	16	16.3	15.4	0.86	15.9	15.8	0.07
Jason Terry	50	49	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.03	9	13	-4	15.9	16.1	-0.20	15.6	16.1	-0.53
Devin Harris	58	58	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.07	12	10	2	16.6	14.8	1.83	17.0	13.8	3.12
Marquis Daniels	43	46	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.03	9	13	-4	15.9	16.0	-0.11	14.8	16.9	-2.13
Erick Dampier	30	29	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.02	5	17	-12	16.3	15.8	0.42	13.8	16.8	-3.05
DeSagana Diop	37	36	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	22	-22	16.3	15.8	0.52	17.2	14.9	2.25
Josh Powell	9	10	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.07	3	19	-16	15.2	16.1	-0.85	14.0	16.1	-2.06
Adrian Griffin	9	11	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.07	-2	24	-26	13.4	16.3	-2.83	13.5	16.2	-2.71
Darrell Armstrong	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	18	-14	14.0	16.2	-2.16	11.0	16.2	-5.24
DJ Mbenga	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	18	-14	9.3	16.2	-6.89	11.3	16.0	-4.66

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	9	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-20	18	10.9	16.4	-5.49	15.6	16.0	-0.40
Fabricio Oberto	13	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-20	18	13.6	16.2	-2.59	16.6	15.9	0.69
Beno Udrih	22	20	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-22	22	14.8	16.2	-1.34	18.4	15.3	3.10
Nick Van Exel	7	9	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	-17	12	19.6	15.5	4.05	19.9	15.6	4.33
Nazr Mohammed	28	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.08	-8	-14	6	13.8	16.7	-2.96	14.0	16.7	-2.77
Manu Ginobili	50	50	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	-16	10	17.2	14.2	2.98	16.0	16.0	0.03
Tim Duncan	61	63	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.05	-6	-16	10	16.9	13.8	3.09	17.3	13.0	4.27
Brent Barry	51	50	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.14	-13	-9	-4	13.8	18.4	-4.53	15.4	16.7	-1.23
Michael Finley	51	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.04	-12	-10	-2	15.7	16.0	-0.34	16.6	15.3	1.32
Tony Parker	62	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.13	-17	-5	-12	15.8	16.0	-0.19	14.6	18.9	-4.24
Robert Horry	35	38	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.13	-18	-4	-14	17.4	14.9	2.54	15.1	16.7	-1.57
Bruce Bowen	66	67	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.12	-21	-1	-20	16.7	13.6	3.08	15.9	16.2	-0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 91, DET 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0	97.1%
CHI 106, NYK 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0	97.0%
HOU 107, VAN 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%