NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	106		Excitement	3.6 [1076]		MVP	Andres Nocioni (CHI): +6.4%
New York Knicks	95		Comeback	1.0 [930]		LVP	Eddy Curry (NYK): -13.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.04	13	59%	0.10	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Luol Deng	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	21	50%	0.03	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.04
Thabo Sefolosha	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	60%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Malik Allen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	13	54%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Duhon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	11	45%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.09	0.01	0.08	14	60%	0.02	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Michael Sweetney	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	3	42%	-0.01	1	-0.00	6	50%	-0.02
P.J. Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	0.00	0.01	4	54%	-0.01	3	-0.05	5	100%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.02	18	60%	0.11	5	-0.07	7	100%	0.03
Malik Rose	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mardy Collins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	71%	0.08	4	-0.08	7	100%	0.03
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerome James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	42%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	5	38%	-0.01	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.01
David Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.01	0.02	8	57%	-0.00	7	-0.12	5	80%	-0.00
Eddy Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.01	0.09	16	45%	-0.07	3	-0.07	12	33%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	31.6	15.8	33.4	1.8	34.5	143.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +14.5%

NYK -1.0%

CHI +1.5%

CHI +35.8%

NYK -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	NYK	NBA	CHI	NYK	NBA
this game	15.1	14.3	15.4	107.1	97.9	104.5
season	14.5	15.7		103.1	103.7
opponent	15.4	15.9		106.7	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.7	14.9	14.4	15.3	15.1
NYK	16.3	15.1	13.3	12.9	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	82	80	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.07	12	-1	13	15.2	14.3	0.93	14.2	14.8	-0.61
Malik Allen	45	47	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.19	20	-9	29	15.8	14.5	1.27	16.4	12.3	4.09
Ben Gordon	49	48	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.26	22	-11	33	14.9	15.2	-0.32	14.1	14.5	-0.43
Ben Wallace	60	58	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.11	9	2	7	15.4	14.5	0.95	14.0	14.8	-0.88
Chris Duhon	71	69	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.38	-2	13	-15	15.5	14.1	1.38	14.6	13.6	0.95
Kirk Hinrich	73	73	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.25	1	10	-9	14.9	15.4	-0.44	14.1	15.0	-0.85
Andres Nocioni	79	78	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.33	-3	14	-17	14.7	16.5	-1.87	14.3	14.4	-0.06
P.J. Brown	29	28	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.15	-3	14	-17	14.9	15.1	-0.23	12.4	15.1	-2.66
Michael Sweetney	11	9	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	9	-7	11.6	15.5	-3.85	13.2	14.4	-1.21
Thabo Sefolosha	5	4	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	10	-9	12.8	15.2	-2.38	16.0	14.2	1.75

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome James	4	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-11	11	16.2	14.2	2.01	12.0	15.2	-3.19
Steve Francis	48	50	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.49	16	-27	43	14.4	14.2	0.15	15.6	14.5	1.09
Renaldo Balkman	51	52	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.36	11	-22	33	13.1	15.7	-2.58	14.8	15.3	-0.45
Channing Frye	16	16	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	-4	-3	18.3	13.5	4.78	15.4	15.0	0.37
Malik Rose	12	12	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.20	-13	2	-15	13.9	14.4	-0.46	14.7	15.1	-0.45
Nate Robinson	29	31	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.17	-13	2	-15	13.6	14.6	-1.00	14.5	15.3	-0.79
David Lee	76	78	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-10	9	13.6	17.0	-3.48	15.0	15.1	-0.10
Stephon Marbury	37	37	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.11	-16	5	-21	16.4	13.0	3.37	15.5	14.8	0.64
Eddy Curry	80	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.31	-2	-9	7	14.1	15.3	-1.18	15.1	14.9	0.14
Jamal Crawford	90	91	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.24	-6	-5	-1	13.8	20.9	-7.05	14.8	18.2	-3.47
Quentin Richardson	42	43	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.18	-22	11	-33	15.6	13.3	2.29	15.6	14.6	0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 113, SAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
HOU 97, SAS 78	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.28,0.19,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%
MIN 91, DET 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0	96.7%