NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	6.8 [473]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +26.9%
New Jersey Nets	92		Comeback	1.5 [428]		LVP	Vince Carter (NJN): -11.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.27	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.27,0.27	0.13	0.17	0.03	11	74%	0.30	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.18	0.04	-0.00	11	83%	0.22	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.11	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.06	0.03	19	65%	0.24	4	-0.13	10	90%	0.02
James Posey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	13	47%	0.06	3	-0.06	8	25%	-0.11
Jason Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	4	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	16	59%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	13	61%	0.18	3	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
Antoine Wright	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	58%	0.02	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.03
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	16	45%	-0.04	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	28	43%	-0.04	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	3.4	36.8	17.8	27.6	3.4	40.2	152.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.1%

MIA +10.9%

NJN -9.9%

MIA +6.6%

NJN -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NJN	NBA	MIA	NJN	NBA
this game	16.7	15.7	15.6	114.6	103.4	104.4
season	15.5	15.7		106.1	102.1
opponent	15.7	15.5		100.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	16.6	18.9	16.3	16.7
NJN	14.7	16.9	17.1	14.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	67	65	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-1	12	16.8	16.4	0.35	16.4	13.8	2.54
Shaquille O'Neal	63	65	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-1	12	17.3	15.1	2.20	16.5	13.4	3.16
Dwyane Wade	84	84	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-1	12	16.6	17.6	-0.98	15.8	13.6	2.21
James Posey	46	47	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.17	3	7	-4	16.3	17.0	-0.72	15.5	15.9	-0.42
Gary Payton	42	41	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.14	4	6	-2	16.4	16.9	-0.47	15.7	15.7	-0.00
Jason Williams	52	53	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.06	5	5	0	17.0	16.3	0.69	15.5	16.0	-0.48
Antoine Walker	69	69	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.07	9	1	8	16.2	18.3	-2.10	14.8	18.6	-3.82
Alonzo Mourning	22	21	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	14	-18	16.8	16.6	0.13	14.2	16.1	-1.96

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jacque Vaughn	10	9	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.04	4	-14	18	20.0	15.1	4.86	17.7	16.6	1.10
Antoine Wright	1	0	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.02	-2	-8	6	2.0	15.8	-13.84	0.0	16.7	-16.67
Lamond Murray	45	44	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-7	4	15.5	15.9	-0.44	16.2	17.1	-0.88
John Thomas	13	12	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	-6	2	15.6	15.7	-0.08	18.2	16.4	1.82
Richard Jefferson	65	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.19	-8	-2	-6	15.4	16.5	-1.17	16.8	16.1	0.68
Jason Collins	59	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.26	-6	-4	-2	16.4	14.2	2.19	17.1	15.9	1.12
Jason Kidd	83	84	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.24	-8	-2	-6	15.4	19.8	-4.45	16.3	22.6	-6.28
Vince Carter	86	86	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.19	-11	1	-12	15.3	26.0	-10.67	16.5	22.7	-6.20
Nenad Krstic	83	82	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.22	-12	2	-14	15.9	13.3	2.52	16.8	15.7	1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.2,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.35,0.22,0.17,0.21,0.06,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 99, MIL 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.28,0.21,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.57,0.58,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.22,0.15,0.08,0	93.0%
LAL 100, MIN 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.37,0.28,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.2,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.15,0	92.9%
HOU 93, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.15,0.14,0.24,0.37,0.25,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.04,0	92.9%