NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	86		Excitement	9.8 [88]		MVP	Antonio McDyess (DET): +19.0%
Detroit Pistons	84		Comeback	2.2 [445]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -27.0%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Drew Gooden	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.17	-0.01	0.17	-0.00	5	40%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.10	0.00	5	73%	0.17	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
Donyell Marshall	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.08	0.00	9	70%	0.19	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Ira Newble	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.11	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	10	31%	-0.05	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Anderson Varejao	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	4	37%	-0.08	1	-0.04	8	75%	-0.04
Eric Snow	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.16,-0.16	0.01	-0.16	0.01	30	48%	-0.08	2	-0.08	7	71%	-0.03
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.24	-0.01	-0.22	0.01	13	50%	-0.12	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.02	0.17	0.00	9	55%	0.22	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.04
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	9	56%	0.02	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	2	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.08,0.08,-0.16	-0.16	0.08	-0.24	0.00	13	66%	-0.01	2	-0.15	6	100%	0.06
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.27,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.08	-0.12	-0.00	16	47%	0.09	6	-0.28	4	100%	0.03
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.26	-0.26	-0.06	-0.18	0.02	9	32%	-0.26	0	0.00	7	0%	-0.35
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.27	-0.27	-0.11	-0.17	-0.01	16	38%	-0.12	4	-0.15	7	71%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	3.7	35.6	18.8	28.9	2.8	45.1	164.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +11.0%

CLE +15.0%

DET -10.0%

CLE +29.7%

CLE +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	DET	NBA	CLE	DET	NBA
this game	17.2	16.7	15.6	100.0	100.0	104.4
season	16.2	16.9		105.6	108.3
opponent	15.8	15.5		101.4	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.8	18.0	17.2	18.5	17.2
DET	18.8	14.7	18.8	14.9	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	44	44	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.34	8	-6	14	17.4	16.9	0.48	14.7	18.9	-4.20
Drew Gooden	27	24	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.43	1	1	0	16.2	17.6	-1.41	19.2	15.7	3.47
Donyell Marshall	63	62	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	-1	4	17.4	16.5	0.86	15.6	19.8	-4.19
LeBron James	83	82	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	0	2	17.1	19.3	-2.26	17.0	4.5	12.52
Ronald Murray	70	68	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.46	-4	6	-10	17.2	16.9	0.26	17.2	14.8	2.36
Anderson Varejao	35	36	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	-1	4	16.3	17.8	-1.51	15.1	17.9	-2.83
Eric Snow	59	56	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	2	-2	17.3	16.7	0.60	17.7	14.7	3.07
Ira Newble	2	2	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.07	0	2	-2	8.0	17.4	-9.37	4.5	17.0	-12.52
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	47	46	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.16	-3	5	-8	18.1	16.1	2.01	18.2	15.0	3.20

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Evans	9	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	0	-2	11.1	17.4	-6.29	19.4	16.9	2.56
Ben Wallace	73	75	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.32	4	-6	10	17.0	15.1	1.88	16.8	19.6	-2.85
Chauncey Billups	62	64	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	4	-10	17.6	14.3	3.26	17.8	15.2	2.59
Lindsey Hunter	25	24	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.35	3	-5	8	14.2	17.8	-3.60	16.0	17.6	-1.54
Antonio McDyess	48	48	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-4	6	16.3	17.3	-0.97	17.0	17.4	-0.39
Rasheed Wallace	38	40	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.22	-8	6	-14	18.1	15.6	2.52	17.5	16.8	0.70
Richard Hamilton	81	84	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.46	-1	-1	0	16.9	13.3	3.52	17.0	25.0	-8.04
Tayshaun Prince	84	86	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	16.7	0.0	16.73	17.2	0.0	17.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.28,0.21,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.23,0.53,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 107, HOU 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.25,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.48,0.32,0.31,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.31,0.42,0	92.9%
SEA 98, MIA 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.45,0.45,0.23,0.41,0	92.9%
BOS 89, CHA 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.43,0.21,0.2,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.17,0.28,0	91.7%