NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	93		Excitement	9.4 [112]		MVP	Kevin Martin (SAC): +68.2%
Sacramento Kings	94		Comeback	4.8 [382]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -38.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.58	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.16,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.58	0.16	0.42	-0.00	8	89%	0.58	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Tim Duncan	0.24	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.24,0.24	0.07	0.17	-0.00	20	60%	0.29	3	-0.05	8	62%	-0.00
Brent Barry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	69%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	1	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.06	0.09	0.01	13	40%	0.09	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.06
Bruce Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	8	37%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23,-0.23,-0.38	-0.16	-0.22	-0.00	9	38%	-0.07	7	-0.31	3	67%	-0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.68	0.68	0.04	0.65	0.00	7	56%	0.68	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	-0.00	0.12	-0.00	17	58%	0.28	6	-0.16	9	100%	0.10
Metta World Peace	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.03	0.02	15	55%	0.28	1	-0.20	10	50%	-0.08
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.05	0.09	-0.00	21	43%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	10	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.8	31.5	18.4	31.3	3.5	43.6	157.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +38.7%

SAC +5.8%

SAC +8.9%

SAS -1.5%

SAS -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SAC	NBA	SAS	SAC	NBA
this game	16.0	15.3	15.6	98.9	104.4	104.4
season	16.3	15.3		106.0	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.8	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.8	16.1	16.7	16.5	16.0
SAC	14.0	15.9	15.3	16.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	19	21	0.35	-0.85	1.19	-0.01	12	-13	25	15.0	16.2	-1.23	15.8	15.2	0.59
Robert Horry	27	26	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.17	7	-8	15	16.0	16.0	-0.02	15.9	15.1	0.81
Brent Barry	49	49	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.38	13	-14	27	15.2	16.8	-1.53	15.8	14.7	1.15
Rasho Nesterovic	35	33	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.05	0	-1	1	16.9	15.4	1.49	14.4	15.8	-1.40
Nick Van Exel	16	16	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	2	-5	17.9	15.6	2.29	15.5	15.3	0.23
Nazr Mohammed	21	18	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.03	-7	6	-13	15.8	16.0	-0.22	14.6	15.5	-0.94
Michael Finley	58	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.48	6	-7	13	15.6	16.7	-1.11	16.3	13.8	2.47
Manu Ginobili	64	63	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	3	-7	15.9	16.1	-0.23	14.6	17.0	-2.41
Tim Duncan	78	74	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.48	-2	1	-3	15.8	16.9	-1.08	15.6	13.7	1.90
Bruce Bowen	39	37	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.06	-18	17	-35	17.2	15.1	2.05	14.3	16.0	-1.77
Tony Parker	64	58	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.48	-9	8	-17	15.9	16.2	-0.37	15.2	15.4	-0.20

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	67	72	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.52	10	-9	19	15.5	14.7	0.89	15.7	17.0	-1.33
Metta World Peace	82	86	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.56	6	-5	11	15.2	16.5	-1.30	15.9	17.0	-1.12
Bonzi Wells	83	87	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.45	6	-5	11	15.2	16.1	-0.90	15.9	16.7	-0.79
Mike Bibby	90	94	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	0	1	15.3	0.0	15.31	16.0	0.0	15.98
Kenny Thomas	39	45	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.14	3	-2	5	15.9	14.9	1.03	16.6	15.4	1.15
Kevin Martin	55	54	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.33	-7	8	-15	14.9	16.0	-1.17	15.4	16.7	-1.30
Francisco Garcia	11	10	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.07	-5	6	-11	16.9	15.1	1.82	17.6	15.8	1.81
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	23	22	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	-0.05	-9	10	-19	14.7	15.5	-0.89	17.0	15.7	1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.79,0.76,0.71,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.55,0.28,0.68,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 115, PHX 122	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.83,0.72,0.77,0.71,0.75,0.62,0.48,0.47,0.67,0.58,0.68,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.46,0.55,0.72,1	91.6%
IND 88, SAC 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.64,0.64,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.81,0.88,0.8,0.74,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.53,0.73,0.75,0.46,0.55,0.74,1	91.4%
MIA 101, WAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.64,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.73,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.57,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.85,0.73,1	91.1%