NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	74		Excitement	5.7 [709]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +17.7%
San Antonio Spurs	81		Comeback	3.1 [712]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -16.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	8	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.03
Rasheed Wallace	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	10	55%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	71%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Dupree	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.05	0.02	10	55%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Lindsey Hunter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	8	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	13	35%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	0.00	18	37%	-0.14	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.09	-0.01	13	74%	0.24	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	7	75%	0.11	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	4	62%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	11	33%	-0.10	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.16,-0.17,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.2,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.16	-0.02	-0.01	27	42%	-0.01	5	-0.16	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.6	34.0	19.8	32.0	3.6	43.3	162.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +40.1%

SAS +5.5%

SAS +8.6%

DET -5.2%

SAS +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	17.9	19.1	15.5	93.7	105.2	104.0
season	16.7	16.3		103.5	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.9		98.4	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.6	20.8	15.9	17.6	17.9
SAS	18.4	20.3	19.3	18.4	19.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	37	36	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.09	5	-12	17	18.3	17.5	0.87	21.5	16.9	4.60
Elden Campbell	2	3	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-6	5	19.5	17.8	1.68	15.7	19.2	-3.55
Ronald Dupree	1	1	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-7	7	16.0	17.9	-1.88	24.0	19.0	4.99
Lindsey Hunter	36	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	-1	-5	18.6	17.2	1.38	17.0	20.7	-3.67
Ben Wallace	65	62	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	0	-7	17.1	21.5	-4.42	18.2	22.5	-4.29
Rasheed Wallace	44	43	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.30	-6	-1	-5	18.7	16.8	1.85	19.3	18.8	0.56
Chauncey Billups	64	64	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-4	1	17.8	18.1	-0.25	19.3	17.9	1.39
Richard Hamilton	77	76	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	0	-7	17.9	15.0	2.94	19.0	25.0	-6.00
Tayshaun Prince	69	66	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.24	-10	3	-13	17.4	21.2	-3.82	19.4	17.4	2.00

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	53	55	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.19	17	-10	27	18.3	20.7	-2.43	17.4	19.0	-1.58
Brent Barry	46	46	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.16	14	-7	21	19.5	18.5	0.99	18.6	16.8	1.84
Bruce Bowen	45	47	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	6	-5	19.7	18.2	1.52	17.9	17.7	0.19
Manu Ginobili	58	59	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.14	5	2	3	18.4	21.3	-2.90	17.9	17.6	0.35
Tim Duncan	67	70	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.22	1	6	-5	19.3	17.9	1.35	17.3	22.0	-4.67
Tony Parker	61	64	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.24	-1	8	-9	19.1	18.9	0.18	17.3	20.3	-2.97
Nazr Mohammed	34	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	11	-15	19.9	18.4	1.49	19.8	16.5	3.31
Devin Brown	1	1	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.03	0	7	-7	24.0	19.0	4.99	16.0	17.9	-1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.97,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 88, ORL 95	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.72,0.86,0.96,1,1,1	93.7%
HOU 87, PHX 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.68,0.59,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.95,1,1,1	93.6%
SAC 94, IND 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.91,1,1	93.5%