NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	4.6 [926]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): +11.6%
Detroit Pistons	106		Comeback	1.2 [1098]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): -15.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	9	58%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Michael Doleac	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	10	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Keyon Dooling	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.02	7	61%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	22	52%	-0.04	3	-0.02	10	80%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	0.03	2	67%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	9	43%	-0.09	2	-0.06	10	40%	-0.08

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.02	0.02	13	74%	0.14	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.02	11	63%	0.06	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	8	75%	0.04
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	83%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Dupree	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	18	58%	0.06	3	-0.07	12	67%	-0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	12	52%	0.00	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.02
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	3	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	-0.04	11	18%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.5	2.0	37.1	20.5	26.4	3.7	40.4	161.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +32.5%

MIA -0.4%

DET +4.3%

DET +13.2%

DET +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	15.9	16.1	15.5	105.5	119.1	104.0
season	15.7	16.7		107.9	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.5		98.9	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.4	16.4	18.7	13.6	15.9
DET	17.4	14.9	16.4	15.7	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	46	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.14	2	-12	14	16.3	15.6	0.73	17.1	15.0	2.04
Shaquille O'Neal	43	43	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-8	6	17.3	14.8	2.48	17.4	14.8	2.64
Christian Laettner	15	15	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-6	2	17.9	15.6	2.30	17.1	15.8	1.30
Eddie Jones	75	75	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.20	0	-10	10	15.1	19.9	-4.77	16.2	15.1	1.08
Alonzo Mourning	35	35	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	-4	-2	14.6	16.8	-2.14	15.1	16.6	-1.51
Michael Doleac	18	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	-4	-2	15.5	16.1	-0.55	14.3	16.4	-2.13
Udonis Haslem	65	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-8	6	16.3	15.2	1.11	15.8	16.8	-1.01
Dwyane Wade	81	77	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.16	-6	-4	-2	15.8	17.2	-1.41	16.5	13.4	3.05
Keyon Dooling	45	44	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.07	-12	2	-14	15.6	16.3	-0.73	15.0	17.1	-2.04
Rasual Butler	32	32	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.06	-14	4	-18	16.7	15.5	1.15	14.8	16.8	-1.99

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	83	84	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.14	11	-1	12	16.6	8.0	8.64	16.1	13.9	2.26
Lindsey Hunter	35	36	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.13	9	1	8	13.8	17.5	-3.67	15.2	16.4	-1.20
Chauncey Billups	75	76	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.12	9	1	8	16.4	14.4	1.93	16.0	15.5	0.49
Antonio McDyess	30	31	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	3	4	16.6	15.8	0.77	16.5	15.7	0.82
Tayshaun Prince	78	78	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.17	3	7	-4	16.4	13.9	2.45	15.3	19.9	-4.64
Rasheed Wallace	38	41	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.01	7	3	4	16.3	15.9	0.45	16.7	15.3	1.39
Ben Wallace	67	69	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.22	-2	12	-14	16.6	14.3	2.37	15.7	16.6	-0.91
Elden Campbell	14	14	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.06	7	3	4	17.6	15.8	1.88	21.4	14.9	6.48
Carlos Arroyo	14	15	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	9	-8	14.4	16.4	-1.93	15.5	16.0	-0.49
Darvin Ham	4	4	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	8	-6	14.2	16.1	-1.89	13.0	16.1	-3.08
Ronald Dupree	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	11	-12	4.0	16.5	-12.48	12.3	16.1	-3.73
Darko Milicic	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	13	-16	6.7	16.5	-9.74	10.0	16.2	-6.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.64,0.69,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.79,0.83,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.74,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 97, DET 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.83,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.95,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
CHI 98, POR 122	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
MIL 99, ORL 106	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.98,1,1,0.98,1	94.7%