NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	97		Excitement	8.2 [240]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +33.8%
Houston Rockets	93		Comeback	9.4 [88]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DAL): -21.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.34	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.34	0.14	0.19	-0.01	18	80%	0.49	5	-0.15	4	100%	0.03
Michael Finley	0.24	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.24,0.24	0.10	0.15	0.00	13	69%	0.27	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	11	32%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	14	49%	-0.07	1	-0.02	9	100%	0.06
Marquis Daniels	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	1	71%	0.01	4	-0.13	5	60%	-0.03
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21	-0.12	-0.09	-0.00	10	38%	-0.13	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.04

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.10	0.01	7	47%	0.09	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Scott Padgett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.00	3	83%	0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	6	43%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	62%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.2,-0.16	-0.16	0.00	-0.16	0.00	7	83%	0.20	5	-0.36	10	80%	0.04
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.02,-0.17	-0.17	0.03	-0.21	-0.01	26	60%	0.06	5	-0.23	8	87%	0.02
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.07	-0.03	11	30%	-0.09	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	3.0	34.3	20.4	29.6	3.3	45.5	163.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +26.3%

DAL +6.7%

HOU -11.0%

DAL +27.8%

DAL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	HOU	NBA	DAL	HOU	NBA
this game	16.3	16.0	15.5	109.0	104.5	104.0
season	14.9	16.0		108.2	104.2
opponent	15.8	15.5		100.6	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.6	14.8	16.2	19.2	16.3
HOU	17.1	14.0	16.5	16.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	77	77	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.44	8	-4	12	16.8	13.3	3.45	16.1	15.6	0.53
Jason Terry	74	75	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.32	11	-7	18	16.6	14.8	1.82	16.5	13.8	2.68
Jerry Stackhouse	60	59	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.43	4	0	4	16.6	15.7	0.98	15.3	17.6	-2.30
Michael Finley	80	80	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.42	1	3	-2	16.6	13.6	3.07	16.1	15.2	0.92
Erick Dampier	30	32	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.21	7	-3	10	15.4	16.8	-1.33	18.6	14.6	3.98
Josh Howard	55	57	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.06	5	-1	6	15.9	16.9	-1.01	16.4	15.5	0.85
Alan Henderson	21	20	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	9	-14	16.1	16.4	-0.29	15.7	16.1	-0.44
Marquis Daniels	39	37	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	8	-12	15.7	16.8	-1.15	14.2	17.3	-3.08
Devin Harris	9	8	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.10	-7	11	-18	13.6	16.6	-3.07	13.0	16.3	-3.35

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dikembe Mutombo	37	38	0.15	-0.65	0.81	0.12	1	-5	6	16.8	15.5	1.22	15.6	16.8	-1.19
Jon Barry	47	47	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.33	14	-18	32	15.5	16.6	-1.13	16.3	16.3	0.05
Bob Sura	44	43	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.05	-6	2	-8	16.0	16.1	-0.04	16.3	16.4	-0.11
Scott Padgett	28	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.12	-10	6	-16	18.0	15.1	2.90	15.6	16.7	-1.13
Ryan Bowen	32	31	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	2	-8	14.3	17.0	-2.66	15.7	16.6	-0.88
Mike James	53	52	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.47	3	-7	10	15.5	16.8	-1.28	16.7	15.8	0.86
David Wesley	72	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.36	-3	-1	-2	16.4	14.4	2.09	16.6	15.2	1.37
Tracy McGrady	83	83	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.38	-7	3	-10	16.2	14.0	2.19	16.4	15.5	0.87
Yao Ming	49	49	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.48	-6	2	-8	15.7	16.4	-0.69	16.8	15.7	1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.54,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.74,0.52,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.89,0.78,0.67,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 104, WAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.69,0.55,0.61,0.74,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.53,0.72,0.73,0.83,0.71,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.42,0	91.1%
MEM 91, PHI 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.71,0.87,0.81,0.78,0.68,0.42,0	89.3%
SAC 125, DAL 121	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.58,0.78,0.72,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.83,0.76,0.72,0.57,0.16,0	89.0%