NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	74		Excitement	8.8 [123]		MVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): +90.4%
San Antonio Spurs	73		Comeback	18.8 [57]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -25.2%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.90	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.9	0.01	0.89	-0.01	7	50%	0.90	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Devean George	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.13	0.02	0.01	9	89%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02	-0.06	0.04	-0.04	9	48%	0.05	2	-0.04	5	20%	-0.04
Luke Walton	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Karl Malone	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.10	-0.06	0.00	10	32%	-0.08	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Kobe Bryant	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.2,-0.33,-0.33,-0.2	-0.14	-0.08	-0.02	27	41%	0.06	5	-0.25	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.2,-0.2,-0.12,-0.12,0.56	0.56	-0.15	0.71	0.01	15	52%	0.75	7	-0.20	10	70%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	6	62%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.08	-0.01	7	61%	-0.01	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	8	50%	-0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	10	36%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	4	0%	-0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.23,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.07,-0.16,-0.25	-0.25	-0.16	-0.10	-0.00	23	33%	-0.17	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.7	33.2	17.6	26.5	3.7	40.7	150.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +74.9%

SAS -6.7%

SAS -41.6%

LAL +8.4%

LAL +15.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.5	15.8	15.7	82.2	83.0	100.5
season	15.4	15.9		102.8	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.6		92.7	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	16.0	15.5	17.0	17.7	16.5
SAS	16.0	15.1	15.7	16.6	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	73	70	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.57	5	-4	9	16.5	16.4	0.14	15.8	15.9	-0.07
Karl Malone	79	78	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.43	5	-4	9	16.4	17.1	-0.65	16.1	13.6	2.52
Derek Fisher	46	46	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.68	-4	5	-9	15.7	17.4	-1.69	15.7	16.0	-0.33
Shaquille O'Neal	67	69	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.33	6	-5	11	17.1	14.9	2.16	15.8	15.8	-0.02
Kobe Bryant	89	86	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.49	0	1	-1	16.4	23.0	-6.55	15.7	21.5	-5.80
Luke Walton	11	10	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.01	2	-1	3	15.6	16.6	-1.01	13.4	16.1	-2.74
Kareem Rush	15	16	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	2	-3	15.2	16.8	-1.59	16.3	15.7	0.59
Slava Medvedenko	22	18	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.14	-8	9	-17	16.3	16.6	-0.33	16.2	15.7	0.49
Devean George	48	47	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	-0.31	0	1	-1	17.5	15.4	2.10	16.0	15.7	0.32

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	73	76	0.52	-1.02	1.54	0.43	3	-4	7	16.1	14.7	1.40	16.3	17.9	-1.67
Hedo Turkoglu	47	48	0.46	-0.96	1.43	0.64	-6	5	-11	16.4	15.2	1.14	16.1	17.0	-0.81
Devin Brown	45	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.39	6	-7	13	15.3	16.3	-1.02	16.7	16.4	0.27
Manu Ginobili	47	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.55	8	-9	17	15.5	16.2	-0.68	17.1	15.9	1.23
Bruce Bowen	51	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	9	-19	16.0	15.5	0.50	16.3	16.9	-0.56
Tim Duncan	84	86	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.50	3	-4	7	15.6	20.5	-4.89	16.7	13.2	3.42
Robert Horry	47	50	-0.96	0.46	-1.41	-1.16	7	-8	15	15.4	16.3	-0.91	17.5	15.3	2.16
Rasho Nesterovic	46	43	-1.26	0.76	-2.02	-0.79	-16	15	-31	16.3	15.3	1.04	15.5	17.5	-1.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.36,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.31,0.19,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.13,0.23,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.38,0.43,0.76,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 109, WAS 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.38,0.36,0.65,0.73,0	93.2%
MIN 107, ORL 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.34,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.11,0.19,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.4,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.69,0.42,0	92.5%
POR 80, LAC 79	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.2,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.34,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.68,0.73,0	90.9%