NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	107		Excitement	9.0 [120]		MVP	Malik Sealy (MIN): +46.5%
Orlando Magic	105		Comeback	3.9 [300]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): -21.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Sealy	0.46	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.46	-0.02	0.49	0.00	9	55%	0.51	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Mitchell	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.25,0.18	0.07	0.11	0.00	8	78%	0.22	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.01	12	64%	0.16	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Terrell Brandon	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,0.01,-0.15,-0.15,0.01	-0.00	0.03	0.01	16	53%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
William Avery	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	7	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	9	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.22	-0.02	-0.19	0.01	21	52%	-0.12	2	-0.10	8	62%	-0.07

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.3,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.07	0.15	-0.00	9	67%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.11	0.00	4	75%	0.17	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	7	76%	0.11	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	11	57%	0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.00	9	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.04	0.00	8	57%	0.10	3	-0.11	5	40%	-0.05
John Amaechi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	8	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	-0.00	19	42%	-0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	30.6	15.8	27.2	2.5	32.8	133.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +27.6%

ORL -1.9%

MIN +7.6%

MIN +11.9%

MIN +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ORL	NBA	MIN	ORL	NBA
this game	17.0	13.1	15.2	110.3	111.7	101.7
season	15.1	13.6		103.5	100.4
opponent	15.4	15.7		99.3	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.3	15.7	18.0	21.6	17.0
ORL	11.3	13.7	13.9	13.8	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	90	88	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.40	12	-10	22	17.1	15.6	1.57	13.1	13.0	0.07
Malik Sealy	59	55	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.46	4	-2	6	15.5	19.3	-3.80	12.5	13.9	-1.47
Joe Smith	65	65	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.59	-3	5	-8	17.8	15.4	2.38	13.7	11.7	2.04
Terrell Brandon	78	76	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	-1	4	16.6	18.6	-1.99	12.6	15.2	-2.67
Rasho Nesterovic	28	26	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.00	9	-7	16	14.7	18.0	-3.26	11.7	13.6	-1.95
Sam Mitchell	43	42	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.45	-8	10	-18	17.6	16.6	1.07	14.0	12.3	1.78
Wally Szczerbiak	63	60	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.10	1	1	0	17.2	16.7	0.50	12.5	14.1	-1.65
Anthony Peeler	38	39	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.01	-2	4	-6	19.3	15.5	3.80	13.9	12.5	1.47
William Avery	21	19	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.02	-6	8	-14	16.9	17.1	-0.16	14.6	12.7	1.90

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Maggette	51	50	0.30	-0.80	1.11	0.07	8	-10	18	13.5	12.6	0.85	18.7	15.2	3.49
Pat Garrity	53	55	0.25	-0.75	1.00	-0.07	11	-13	24	13.8	12.1	1.76	18.8	14.7	4.17
John Amaechi	7	7	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	1	-4	16.1	12.8	3.33	13.4	17.3	-3.88
Chucky Atkins	34	36	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.33	7	-9	16	14.1	12.5	1.65	18.4	16.2	2.20
Michael Doleac	29	31	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.08	-5	3	-8	10.7	14.1	-3.48	14.2	18.4	-4.17
Ben Wallace	35	38	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-6	4	-10	11.7	13.9	-2.15	15.6	17.9	-2.34
Darrell Armstrong	63	66	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.25	-3	1	-4	12.6	14.0	-1.44	15.9	19.5	-3.65
Bo Outlaw	59	57	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	0	-2	14.0	11.5	2.56	19.2	14.0	5.16
Chris Gatling	51	51	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.34	-3	1	-4	14.7	11.1	3.63	18.6	15.2	3.41
Monty Williams	47	50	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.41	-3	1	-4	11.4	14.7	-3.23	15.0	19.2	-4.23
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	41	44	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.35	-11	9	-20	12.2	13.7	-1.54	15.0	18.7	-3.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.34,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.11,0.19,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.4,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.69,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 74, SAS 73	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.36,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.31,0.19,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.13,0.23,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.38,0.43,0.76,0.58,0	92.5%
MEM 99, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.53,0.55,0.71,0.42,0	91.5%
MIA 109, WAS 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.38,0.36,0.65,0.73,0	91.5%