NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	85		Excitement	4.7 [863]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +16.2%
San Antonio Spurs	95		Comeback	1.1 [1160]		LVP	Karl Malone (LAL): -10.5%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	21	65%	0.13	3	-0.06	7	29%	-0.04
Slava Medvedenko	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	60%	0.05	1	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Luke Walton	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Rick Fox	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.02	0.00	17	42%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Devean George	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	5	30%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	10	32%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Karl Malone	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	0.02	8	65%	0.04	5	-0.14	4	75%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.06	0.02	23	62%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	8	71%	0.08	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.06	0.01	8	56%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kevin Willis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	13	60%	0.08	4	-0.11	14	71%	-0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	7	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.08
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	3.7	35.1	19.7	28.0	3.5	36.8	154.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +21.8%

SAS +12.8%

LAL -16.7%

SAS +22.1%

SAS +10.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	17.2	16.1	15.7	97.7	110.5	100.5
season	15.4	15.9		102.8	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.6		92.7	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	17.2	16.1	17.6	17.9	17.2
SAS	15.4	15.2	16.7	17.2	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Walton	2	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.09	-3	-7	4	13.0	17.3	-4.26	10.7	16.3	-5.66
Kareem Rush	12	12	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-10	10	13.7	17.7	-4.05	14.1	16.5	-2.38
Slava Medvedenko	13	14	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.07	1	-11	12	17.0	17.2	-0.19	16.9	16.0	0.96
Rick Fox	12	12	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-7	4	15.2	17.5	-2.31	16.3	16.1	0.24
Derek Fisher	40	42	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-14	18	16.6	17.6	-0.95	17.4	14.9	2.45
Gary Payton	66	65	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.03	-9	-1	-8	17.2	17.0	0.21	15.8	17.1	-1.28
Shaquille O'Neal	80	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-7	4	17.1	18.1	-1.07	16.1	16.1	0.00
Kobe Bryant	76	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	-2	-6	17.2	16.8	0.39	16.4	14.2	2.23
Devean George	55	52	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.07	-14	4	-18	18.6	14.7	3.91	15.5	17.1	-1.54
Karl Malone	79	77	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.16	-15	5	-20	17.4	15.0	2.38	16.2	15.6	0.64

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	72	74	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.11	12	-2	14	15.9	17.1	-1.21	17.3	16.3	1.00
Rasho Nesterovic	64	66	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.13	10	0	10	15.7	17.4	-1.72	18.3	13.6	4.67
Manu Ginobili	53	52	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.11	10	0	10	15.2	17.7	-2.55	17.0	17.3	-0.30
Bruce Bowen	56	59	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.17	8	2	6	16.8	14.9	1.94	17.7	16.1	1.55
Tim Duncan	75	77	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.18	7	3	4	16.2	15.7	0.46	17.1	17.4	-0.27
Robert Horry	30	29	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	5	0	16.8	15.7	1.08	15.5	18.0	-2.52
Hedo Turkoglu	37	40	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	6	-2	15.1	16.9	-1.74	18.3	16.1	2.20
Jason Hart	14	13	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	12	-14	17.1	15.9	1.21	16.3	17.3	-1.00
Devin Brown	27	24	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	12	-14	17.6	15.5	2.13	13.8	18.4	-4.60
Kevin Willis	2	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	12	-14	23.0	16.0	7.04	3.0	17.3	-14.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.74,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.91,0.9,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.89,0.84,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.77,0.69,0.65,0.77,0.85,0.97,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 85, ATL 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.86,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.63,0.8,0.81,0.69,0.76,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%
IND 89, NYK 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.89,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.75,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,1	94.0%
TOR 101, IND 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.83,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.92,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.74,0.86,0.8,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.99,1	94.0%