NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	110		Excitement	3.8 [1052]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +11.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	97		Comeback	1.4 [387]		LVP	Lorenzen Wright (MEM): -6.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.00	-0.04	15	72%	0.18	4	-0.07	10	70%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	6	71%	0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Robert Horry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.12	0.00	0.05	7	87%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.00	18	62%	0.12	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Jason Hart	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.01	0.02	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Ward	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.02	3	83%	0.03	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Malik Rose	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.01	0.03	15	69%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.01	10	59%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Humphrey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	9	62%	0.05	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	9	44%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	3	50%	-0.02	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	13	59%	0.01	3	-0.06	8	100%	0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	5	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	3.5	31.3	19.7	33.1	3.5	37.2	158.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +42.7%

SAS +1.1%

SAS +4.2%

SAS +3.8%

MEM -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MEM	NBA	SAS	MEM	NBA
this game	16.9	15.7	15.7	122.2	111.5	100.5
season	15.9	15.3		100.1	102.3
opponent	15.7	15.8		100.5	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.5	17.3	16.5	17.1	16.9
MEM	14.7	17.9	16.2	14.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	74	72	0.62	-0.12	0.74	-0.08	24	-11	35	16.6	18.0	-1.39	15.6	16.0	-0.40
Bruce Bowen	65	60	0.57	-0.07	0.65	-0.10	23	-10	33	16.3	18.2	-1.92	16.1	14.7	1.45
Robert Horry	49	50	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.04	17	-4	21	16.4	17.4	-1.07	16.4	14.7	1.63
Tim Duncan	71	69	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.06	10	3	7	16.7	17.4	-0.65	16.4	12.7	3.78
Manu Ginobili	46	44	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	8	-3	16.5	17.2	-0.77	14.6	16.8	-2.22
Hedo Turkoglu	64	63	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	9	-5	17.2	16.1	1.04	15.2	16.9	-1.73
Rasho Nesterovic	42	36	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.09	4	9	-5	17.2	16.5	0.67	16.1	15.4	0.66
Charlie Ward	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	14	-15	20.0	16.8	3.22	12.0	15.8	-3.75
Kevin Willis	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	14	-15	20.0	16.8	3.22	12.0	15.8	-3.75
Malik Rose	12	14	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	17	-21	16.5	16.9	-0.41	11.1	16.5	-5.48
Devin Brown	7	8	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.05	-5	18	-23	23.0	16.3	6.66	19.1	15.3	3.81
Jason Hart	16	15	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.20	-11	24	-35	18.0	16.6	1.39	16.0	15.6	0.40

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Humphrey	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-15	17	12.0	15.8	-3.75	20.0	16.8	3.22
Lorenzen Wright	37	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-12	11	16.4	15.1	1.24	16.8	16.9	-0.15
Bo Outlaw	38	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.11	-1	-12	11	15.3	15.9	-0.58	17.3	16.5	0.80
Shane Battier	24	23	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.01	-5	-8	3	13.5	16.5	-2.99	17.9	16.5	1.42
Earl Watson	38	38	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.04	-4	-9	5	15.6	15.8	-0.20	17.2	16.6	0.52
Mike Miller	47	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.02	-6	-7	1	16.8	14.4	2.39	16.9	16.8	0.14
Stromile Swift	32	32	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	-10	-3	-7	15.4	15.8	-0.41	15.9	17.4	-1.42
Bonzi Wells	40	41	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.10	-7	-6	-1	14.4	16.8	-2.39	16.8	16.9	-0.14
Jason Williams	49	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	-4	-5	15.8	15.6	0.20	16.6	17.2	-0.52
James Posey	67	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.08	-9	-4	-5	16.0	14.4	1.64	16.7	17.3	-0.52
Pau Gasol	61	63	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.02	-15	2	-17	16.1	14.6	1.55	16.7	17.1	-0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.11,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 107, GSW 101	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.39,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0	96.4%
HOU 97, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.02,0,0	95.6%
MIN 92, DAL 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.4%