NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	92		Excitement	3.7 [1040]		MVP	Chris Carr (MIN): +6.4%
Dallas Mavericks	82		Comeback	1.1 [566]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (DAL): -12.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Carr	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.02	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	11	59%	0.06	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.03
Sam Mitchell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.06	0.01	0.05	11	75%	0.08	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Doug West	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	47%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
James Robinson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cherokee Parks	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shane Heal	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.14	0.00	-0.09	20	36%	-0.04	3	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Terry Porter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	12	43%	-0.00	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	11	52%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	6	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	0.02	8	60%	-0.01	4	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	0.01	0.03	21	57%	0.01	6	-0.10	9	78%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.02	12	25%	-0.11	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	25.3	15.6	24.2	2.0	34.2	129.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +28.9%

MIN +8.0%

MIN +4.2%

MIN +7.0%

MIN +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DAL	NBA	MIN	DAL	NBA
this game	16.2	14.6	15.6	96.8	89.1	104.4
season	15.5	15.9		103.3	99.1
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.5	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.4	15.2	19.1	15.4	16.2
DAL	13.3	15.5	14.3	15.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	76	75	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.18	10	0	10	16.8	13.8	3.01	14.4	15.5	-1.17
Dean Garrett	56	52	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.07	11	-1	12	16.6	15.6	1.04	14.3	14.9	-0.66
Sam Mitchell	66	64	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.18	5	5	0	16.3	16.0	0.29	15.0	13.7	1.29
Tom Gugliotta	62	61	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.17	5	5	0	15.8	17.0	-1.18	14.1	15.6	-1.52
Terry Porter	56	55	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.11	6	4	2	17.4	14.4	2.99	14.6	14.6	-0.03
Doug West	63	60	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.15	3	7	-4	15.6	17.4	-1.77	13.9	15.8	-1.85
Chris Carr	36	35	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.08	5	5	0	16.4	16.1	0.30	15.9	13.7	2.21
Shane Heal	18	17	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	8	-6	16.7	16.1	0.58	15.6	14.3	1.31
James Robinson	21	20	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	8	-6	12.5	17.2	-4.72	13.7	14.8	-1.12
Cherokee Parks	21	21	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	9	-8	15.3	16.5	-1.17	15.9	14.2	1.72

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oliver Miller	9	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-8	6	14.8	14.6	0.22	17.8	16.0	1.74
Michael Finley	50	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.20	2	-12	14	14.3	14.9	-0.65	17.0	15.3	1.69
Sam Cassell	42	46	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.13	-2	-8	6	13.6	15.4	-1.85	17.4	15.0	2.39
George McCloud	30	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-2	-6	15.1	14.3	0.83	15.6	16.5	-0.96
Chris Gatling	66	66	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.30	3	-13	16	14.7	14.3	0.37	16.4	15.7	0.78
Eric Montross	27	29	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.11	-14	4	-18	14.6	14.6	0.02	16.1	16.3	-0.19
A.C. Green	63	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.33	1	-11	12	14.0	15.8	-1.73	16.0	16.7	-0.73
Derek Harper	50	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-2	-6	15.4	13.6	1.85	15.0	17.4	-2.39
Jim Jackson	58	60	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	-4	-2	14.9	14.1	0.77	15.5	17.4	-1.95
Jamal Mashburn	65	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.03	-16	6	-22	14.7	14.3	0.34	16.4	15.8	0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 98, CHA 81	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
SAS 104, DET 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
ORL 104, CHA 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%