NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	84		Excitement	6.8 [444]		MVP	Kerry Kittles (NJN): +8.6%
New Jersey Nets	79		Comeback	2.3 [397]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (NJN): -18.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.03	0.07	-0.02	7	57%	0.13	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	6	53%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Speedy Claxton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.12	-0.00	-0.10	7	39%	0.07	4	-0.10	4	50%	0.01
David Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	5	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.01	21	52%	0.00	1	-0.04	8	50%	-0.11
Bruce Bowen	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	5	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.01	13	55%	0.00	5	-0.15	12	75%	-0.02

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.03	0.03	16	60%	0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.00	2	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	6	44%	0.05	2	-0.14	4	100%	0.02
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	3	25%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	11	27%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.17	-0.03	-0.04	19	32%	-0.05	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.08	-0.12	-0.02	18	52%	0.02	5	-0.21	8	87%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	3.0	30.1	21.4	27.6	3.6	42.2	152.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +37.5%

NJN -1.5%

NJN -9.3%

SAS +24.5%

NJN -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NJN	NBA	SAS	NJN	NBA
this game	15.7	15.6	15.5	91.3	85.9	101.6
season	15.7	15.0		102.5	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.4		96.1	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.5	16.4	15.5	14.6	15.7
NJN	14.8	19.6	13.9	14.8	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	86	86	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.28	6	-1	7	15.7	16.8	-1.18	15.8	12.8	2.93
Stephen Jackson	69	71	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.36	1	4	-3	16.4	13.8	2.59	15.3	16.5	-1.17
Bruce Bowen	63	63	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.39	-3	8	-11	15.4	16.4	-0.95	14.9	17.0	-2.13
David Robinson	49	51	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.16	5	0	5	15.4	16.1	-0.64	15.1	16.1	-1.03
Manu Ginobili	53	52	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	-5	15	15.0	16.7	-1.76	16.2	14.7	1.46
Malik Rose	43	41	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.29	0	5	-5	16.1	15.4	0.73	15.4	15.7	-0.25
Tony Parker	84	82	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.38	-3	8	-11	15.9	13.5	2.44	15.2	19.0	-3.84
Speedy Claxton	8	10	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.02	8	-3	11	13.5	15.9	-2.44	19.0	15.2	3.84
Kevin Willis	6	6	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.02	-1	6	-7	16.5	15.7	0.83	17.7	15.4	2.24

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kerry Kittles	69	68	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.23	9	-14	23	14.6	18.5	-3.93	15.2	17.2	-2.00
Jason Collins	48	48	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.09	4	-9	13	15.5	15.6	-0.12	16.0	15.5	0.48
Aaron Williams	10	9	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.11	2	-7	9	11.2	16.1	-4.91	16.1	15.7	0.42
Anthony Johnson	9	9	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.05	-7	2	-9	21.1	15.0	6.14	18.1	15.5	2.64
Rodney Rogers	17	19	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.11	-2	-3	1	17.2	15.2	1.96	17.3	15.3	1.93
Kenyon Martin	82	82	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.36	3	-8	11	15.1	19.1	-3.95	15.6	16.9	-1.31
Richard Jefferson	69	68	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	1	-7	16.0	14.3	1.70	15.7	15.7	-0.03
Jason Kidd	83	83	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.40	2	-7	9	15.0	21.1	-6.14	15.5	18.1	-2.64
Dikembe Mutombo	33	34	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.09	-13	8	-21	17.4	14.5	2.88	15.7	15.7	-0.04
Lucious Harris	40	40	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.31	-17	12	-29	16.4	15.0	1.41	15.8	15.6	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.41,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.27,0.14,0.15,0.04,0.07,0.22,0.1,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 100, BOS 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.43,0.32,0.3,0.12,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.02,0.02,0	92.5%
DEN 134, NOP 131	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.7,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0	92.4%
SAS 104, CHA 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.1,0.07,0.01,0.04,0	91.9%