NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	134		Excitement	8.9 [165]		MVP	DeMarcus Cousins (NOP): +34.0%
New Orleans Pelicans	131		Comeback	2.5 [391]		LVP	Jrue Holiday (NOP): -26.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0.26	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26	0.23	0.06	0.02	15	78%	0.26	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Gary Harris	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.17	0.14	0.06	0.02	12	88%	0.26	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Nikola Jokic	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14	0.05	0.10	0.01	18	55%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Wilson Chandler	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.00	0.00	11	67%	0.15	1	-0.05	5	80%	-0.08
Jamal Murray	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08	-0.01	0.09	-0.00	15	53%	0.14	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	12	52%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	15	43%	0.06	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.04
Kenneth Faried	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.34	0.34	0.11	0.23	-0.00	22	58%	0.39	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Anthony Davis	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.31	0.31	0.23	0.09	0.01	31	63%	0.31	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.00	9	68%	0.15	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Solomon Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	-0.02	-0.00	11	68%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Frazier	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	9	47%	-0.00	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.26	-0.26	0.03	-0.28	0.01	13	60%	0.12	3	-0.38	4	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.3	26.1	14.8	25.0	1.5	39.4	132.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +15.7%

NOP -12.1%

DEN +23.7%

DEN +20.8%

DEN +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOP	NBA	DEN	NOP	NBA
this game	15.2	13.6	14.8	134.0	131.0	107.7
season	14.4	14.1		111.6	104.1
opponent	15.0	14.5		106.2	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.2	14.2	15.9	15.6	15.2
NOP	14.2	13.4	14.1	12.7	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	71	70	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.31	16	-13	29	14.8	16.2	-1.42	13.9	12.9	0.95
Danilo Gallinari	87	87	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.37	7	-4	11	15.1	15.5	-0.39	13.4	14.8	-1.43
Gary Harris	83	85	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.42	-1	4	-5	15.4	14.4	0.95	13.7	13.3	0.39
Mason Plumlee	57	54	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.05	11	-8	19	15.1	15.3	-0.26	14.3	12.7	1.59
Emmanuel Mudiay	60	59	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	3	-3	15.5	14.7	0.83	13.3	14.1	-0.80
Nikola Jokic	69	70	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.42	-8	11	-19	15.3	15.1	0.20	13.4	14.1	-0.67
Wilson Chandler	53	52	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.22	-8	11	-19	15.4	15.0	0.34	13.1	14.1	-1.01
Kenneth Faried	20	23	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	5	-7	14.9	15.3	-0.38	14.0	13.5	0.58

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alexis Ajinca	6	7	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-6	9	14.7	13.5	1.13	17.7	15.0	2.70
Solomon Hill	86	86	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.04	0	-3	3	13.6	13.4	0.20	15.5	13.6	1.89
Anthony Davis	85	85	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.28	9	-12	21	13.3	15.1	-1.80	15.3	14.7	0.55
Tim Frazier	34	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	1	-5	14.1	13.3	0.74	13.5	16.1	-2.58
Jrue Holiday	80	81	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.36	7	-10	17	13.4	14.3	-0.87	15.6	13.4	2.26
Dante Cunningham	38	38	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.08	-9	6	-15	13.9	13.4	0.52	15.7	14.9	0.78
E'Twaun Moore	57	57	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.39	0	-3	3	13.1	14.3	-1.15	16.0	14.1	1.86
DeMarcus Cousins	77	76	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.43	-6	3	-9	13.7	13.1	0.61	14.7	16.8	-2.15
Jordan Crawford	37	36	-0.94	0.44	-1.38	-0.50	-15	12	-27	14.1	13.3	0.72	13.8	16.0	-2.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.7,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 106, VAN 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.1,0,0	93.1%
NJN 100, BOS 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.43,0.32,0.3,0.12,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.02,0.02,0	92.8%
NYK 100, TOR 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.47,0.53,0.37,0.41,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.04,0.08,0	92.7%