NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	94		Excitement	8.5 [166]		MVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): +15.0%
Boston Celtics	92		Comeback	1.0 [581]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -38.3%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kerry Kittles	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.13	0.01	0.01	17	65%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09	0.00	0.09	-0.00	7	60%	0.11	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.07
Keith Van Horn	0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,0.12,0.08	-0.05	0.11	-0.02	17	52%	0.17	4	-0.10	6	67%	-0.05
Todd MacCulloch	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	71%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.06	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	15	54%	0.07	3	-0.14	5	100%	0.03
Aaron Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	55%	0.04	3	-0.11	3	67%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	2	17%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Kenyon Martin	-0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25	-0.19	-0.09	-0.02	13	25%	-0.20	2	-0.06	6	33%	-0.08

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.04	-0.00	17	70%	0.20	2	-0.05	9	78%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	16	32%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	6	17%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21	-0.21	-0.06	-0.16	-0.01	8	50%	-0.07	2	-0.14	8	62%	-0.05
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.38	-0.38	-0.11	-0.30	-0.03	21	54%	-0.12	6	-0.26	15	67%	-0.14

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	436.2	2.7	31.2	19.6	28.1	3.3	46.0	567.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +31.5%

NJN +13.8%

BOS -7.1%

NJN +6.6%

NJN +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	BOS	NBA	NJN	BOS	NBA
this game	16.6	14.7	15.6	102.2	100.0	102.3
season	14.7	15.0		101.4	100.9
opponent	15.7	16.0		98.8	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	17.3	17.3	16.3	15.6	16.6
BOS	14.6	14.0	15.7	14.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	84	83	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.35	11	-9	20	16.7	15.5	1.25	15.0	11.3	3.69
Jason Kidd	89	88	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.42	7	-5	12	16.4	22.3	-5.88	14.9	8.7	6.18
Todd MacCulloch	37	38	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.00	19	-17	36	17.2	16.3	0.92	15.4	14.2	1.20
Keith Van Horn	74	76	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.39	2	0	2	16.7	16.3	0.45	14.8	14.0	0.80
Kerry Kittles	66	67	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	0	2	17.3	14.9	2.40	14.6	15.0	-0.41
Lucious Harris	32	32	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.48	-5	7	-12	15.1	17.5	-2.42	14.0	15.0	-1.06
Richard Jefferson	24	23	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.13	-7	9	-16	16.7	16.6	0.09	12.8	15.3	-2.51
Aaron Williams	54	53	-0.43	0.93	-1.35	0.13	-19	21	-40	16.4	17.0	-0.66	14.3	15.1	-0.81

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	5	5	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.09	7	-9	16	9.0	15.0	-5.99	19.4	16.5	2.92
Rodney Rogers	44	44	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.24	12	-14	26	14.4	14.9	-0.53	18.6	14.9	3.69
Walter McCarty	19	20	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-6	10	15.3	14.5	0.82	19.5	15.8	3.72
Tony Delk	45	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-2	2	14.8	14.6	0.18	16.4	16.9	-0.44
Eric Williams	40	40	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	11	-24	15.2	14.3	0.91	15.8	17.2	-1.40
Kenny Anderson	75	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.42	-2	0	-2	14.5	15.2	-0.63	16.2	18.1	-1.93
Antoine Walker	79	79	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.43	-2	0	-2	14.5	15.8	-1.29	16.5	17.7	-1.22
Paul Pierce	92	92	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	14.7	0.0	14.66	16.6	0.0	16.64
Tony Battie	61	61	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.21	-14	12	-26	15.1	13.8	1.29	15.5	18.9	-3.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.11,0.19,0.21,0.12,0.16,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.18,0.2,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.18,0.19,0.28,0.32,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 95, ATL 88	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.29,0.22,0.04,0	93.6%
POR 88, PHI 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.04,0	92.5%
DAL 89, ATL 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.37,0.53,0.35,0.27,0.32,0.36,0.45,0.26,0	92.4%