NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	87		Excitement	7.3 [363]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +20.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	93		Comeback	3.8 [411]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -33.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Daniels	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	10	62%	0.17	1	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	55%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	8	62%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.10	0.05	-0.02	15	44%	0.05	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
David Robinson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.34	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.25,-0.34,-0.34	-0.07	-0.24	0.02	23	57%	-0.17	6	-0.17	14	86%	0.04

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.2,0.2,0.21	0.21	0.06	0.16	0.01	20	55%	0.21	0	0.00	7	86%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.08	0.00	1	150%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	11	71%	0.18	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	1	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	8	42%	-0.04	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	18	47%	-0.06	4	-0.10	9	78%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	587.7	3.7	37.0	-700.2	27.2	3.5	35.5	-5.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +45.5%

SAS -19.3%

SAS -1.6%

LAL +20.2%

LAL +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	15.8	16.6	15.6	97.8	104.5	102.3
season	15.8	15.3		104.3	106.9
opponent	15.4	15.7		99.8	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.4	15.0	17.2	17.7	15.8
LAL	18.5	16.4	15.5	15.9	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Ferry	40	37	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.01	4	-10	14	13.5	17.7	-4.18	15.8	17.1	-1.28
Mark Bryant	6	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-6	6	16.3	15.7	0.60	11.2	16.9	-5.70
Terry Porter	6	7	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-4	2	21.8	15.3	6.50	19.1	16.4	2.78
Steven Smith	20	20	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-5	4	16.7	15.5	1.19	18.2	16.1	2.08
David Robinson	35	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-4	2	15.2	16.2	-1.00	16.4	16.7	-0.37
Malik Rose	50	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.10	-6	0	-6	16.2	15.2	1.01	17.1	15.8	1.26
Bruce Bowen	83	84	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.32	-4	-2	-2	16.0	12.7	3.33	16.6	15.8	0.83
Tim Duncan	83	83	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	-2	-2	16.0	13.3	2.62	17.0	11.3	5.63
Tony Parker	83	82	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	-2	-2	15.3	21.8	-6.50	16.4	19.1	-2.78
Antonio Daniels	39	40	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.28	-11	5	-16	16.7	15.1	1.63	15.8	17.2	-1.47

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Fox	74	75	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.30	7	-1	8	16.8	15.4	1.42	15.6	16.5	-0.86
Shaquille O'Neal	75	74	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.24	8	-2	10	16.8	15.5	1.29	15.9	15.4	0.45
Brian Shaw	18	18	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.17	10	-4	14	15.3	16.9	-1.57	19.9	14.7	5.23
Kobe Bryant	85	85	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.39	2	4	-2	16.7	14.2	2.44	15.8	15.0	0.81
Robert Horry	60	59	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.26	-1	7	-8	16.6	16.6	-0.00	14.8	17.6	-2.80
Lindsey Hunter	15	17	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	2	2	16.5	16.6	-0.14	15.6	15.8	-0.16
Devean George	29	29	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	2	2	16.8	16.5	0.31	16.8	15.3	1.46
Mark Madsen	1	1	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	6	-6	21.0	16.5	4.47	11.0	15.8	-4.83
Samaki Walker	23	24	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	8	-10	15.1	17.1	-1.96	15.8	15.8	0.02
Derek Fisher	65	63	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	8	-10	16.7	16.4	0.29	15.1	17.3	-2.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.36,0.45,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.52,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.65,0.54,0.45,0.55,0.78,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 98, IND 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.2,0.22,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.71,0.54,0.31,0.63,0.85,0.91,1	92.5%
MIN 82, NJN 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.77,0.74,1	91.5%
MIA 73, NYK 77	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.79,0.65,0.78,0.61,0.54,0.83,0.9,1	91.3%