NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	73		Excitement	7.5 [332]		MVP	Patrick Ewing (NYK): +7.8%
New York Knicks	77		Comeback	4.1 [388]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -35.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Crotty	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	0.01	0.06	3	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
P.J. Brown	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.01	-0.03	0.05	9	44%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.11	-0.01	0.19	15	65%	-0.04	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.04
Ike Austin	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.02	0.04	2	17%	-0.06	1	-0.05	2	50%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.31	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.21,-0.31,-0.31	-0.05	-0.18	0.07	13	50%	-0.14	4	-0.16	2	0%	-0.04
Tim Hardaway	-0.36	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.36	-0.19	-0.19	-0.03	22	36%	-0.19	6	-0.17	3	67%	-0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Ewing	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	21	57%	0.14	2	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Allan Houston	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	13	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	9	48%	0.06	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.07
Larry Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Buck Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.03	-0.01	13	32%	-0.10	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	27.1	17.7	28.4	2.4	40.6	143.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +20.0%

NYK +32.6%

MIA -17.5%

NYK +22.3%

MIA -7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	18.5	17.1	15.6	89.0	96.2	104.4
season	15.8	15.1		103.1	102.0
opponent	16.1	16.3		98.8	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.7	17.6	17.7	21.2	18.5
NYK	17.4	16.7	16.6	17.6	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ike Austin	25	26	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-2	0	18.6	18.4	0.22	16.9	17.1	-0.19
Jamal Mashburn	62	60	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.08	0	-4	4	17.0	23.2	-6.23	16.7	18.1	-1.40
John Crotty	20	20	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	3	-10	18.5	18.5	0.02	17.2	17.0	0.20
P.J. Brown	50	49	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.38	3	-7	10	18.8	18.1	0.70	17.9	15.6	2.29
Voshon Lenard	69	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	-3	2	18.7	17.5	1.13	17.0	17.2	-0.22
Tim Hardaway	75	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.40	0	-4	4	18.3	20.3	-1.97	17.0	17.1	-0.10
Dan Majerle	46	43	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	2	-8	19.2	17.6	1.61	16.6	17.5	-0.91
Alonzo Mourning	63	62	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.40	-7	3	-10	19.2	16.2	3.03	17.0	17.1	-0.08

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Starks	38	40	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.32	10	-6	16	15.9	18.1	-2.25	19.5	17.5	1.98
Charles Oakley	67	69	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	0	4	17.5	14.6	2.91	18.6	18.2	0.40
Allan Houston	70	71	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.40	4	0	4	17.3	15.1	2.23	18.5	18.4	0.14
Chris Childs	45	48	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	1	2	16.4	17.9	-1.43	19.6	16.9	2.69
Patrick Ewing	71	73	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	2	0	16.5	21.2	-4.70	18.3	19.9	-1.57
Buck Williams	22	22	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.08	2	2	0	17.3	16.9	0.37	18.9	18.3	0.51
Charlie Ward	35	34	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	3	-2	17.9	16.4	1.43	16.9	19.6	-2.69
Larry Johnson	52	53	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	10	-16	17.5	16.1	1.40	17.7	19.9	-2.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.79,0.65,0.78,0.61,0.54,0.83,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 100, MIA 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.98,1	92.0%
HOU 94, NOK 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.56,0.56,0.4,0.58,0.57,0.75,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.83,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.97,1	91.9%
BOS 86, POR 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.23,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.27,0.33,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.71,0.71,0.63,0.71,0.71,0.87,0.75,0.64,0.77,0.83,1	91.6%