NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	110		Excitement	5.4 [732]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +15.3%
Dallas Mavericks	122		Comeback	1.3 [796]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): -7.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Robert Pack	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	-0.01	0.05	19	60%	0.05	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Anthony Peeler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	7	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.03	0.02	17	60%	0.03	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.01
Felipe Lopez	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	0.04	19	56%	0.00	3	-0.08	17	76%	-0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.07	-0.03	23	56%	0.16	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	0.01	0.06	21	60%	0.05	0	0.00	10	90%	0.03
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	12	65%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	13	52%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.01	0.04	9	65%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Bradley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	14	57%	0.07	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	560.6	3.5	34.2	19.7	31.4	2.8	-689.7	-37.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +26.4%

DAL +3.2%

DAL +1.8%

DAL +17.8%

DAL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DAL	NBA	MIN	DAL	NBA
this game	14.7	15.7	15.6	115.8	128.4	102.3
season	15.0	14.8		106.7	109.6
opponent	15.5	16.1		105.8	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	12.5	16.6	15.6	14.1	14.7
DAL	15.2	15.4	13.2	19.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Peeler	6	6	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-11	10	19.0	14.4	4.63	18.7	15.4	3.22
Gary Trent	30	30	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.06	1	-13	14	14.7	14.6	0.10	16.4	15.3	1.04
Robert Pack	6	6	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	-8	4	12.7	14.8	-2.13	12.0	15.9	-3.90
Sam Mitchell	25	24	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	-7	2	16.2	14.1	2.03	15.5	15.7	-0.26
Joe Smith	39	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-7	2	13.8	15.2	-1.39	14.0	16.8	-2.80
Felipe Lopez	38	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-8	4	14.2	15.0	-0.80	15.6	15.7	-0.00
Kevin Garnett	90	91	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.17	-7	-5	-2	14.5	17.6	-3.10	16.0	8.7	7.21
Chauncey Billups	89	89	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.20	-8	-4	-4	14.8	12.7	2.13	15.9	12.0	3.90
Wally Szczerbiak	90	90	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.15	-12	0	-12	14.6	16.2	-1.62	15.8	13.6	2.17
Rasho Nesterovic	62	61	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.09	-15	3	-18	14.8	14.5	0.32	15.5	15.9	-0.40

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	89	90	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.13	14	-2	16	15.6	16.0	-0.37	14.8	12.4	2.39
Steve Nash	75	74	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.11	11	1	10	15.4	16.6	-1.20	15.6	11.5	4.09
Raef LaFrentz	79	79	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.14	10	2	8	16.2	13.1	3.04	14.5	15.2	-0.71
Dirk Nowitzki	85	85	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	3	6	15.7	15.4	0.28	14.6	14.9	-0.26
Eduardo Najera	52	52	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.17	4	8	-4	15.2	16.1	-0.89	14.7	14.7	0.02
Nick Van Exel	59	58	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.05	4	8	-4	16.4	14.4	2.03	13.9	15.9	-1.97
Greg Buckner	25	25	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.02	5	7	-2	14.5	16.1	-1.59	14.3	14.8	-0.47
Wang Zhi-zhi	3	3	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	9	-6	11.0	15.8	-4.80	19.0	14.5	4.48
Shawn Bradley	6	7	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.03	1	11	-10	14.0	15.8	-1.76	11.7	14.9	-3.18
Evan Eschmeyer	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	13	-14	19.0	15.6	3.42	11.5	14.7	-3.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.88,0.83,0.88,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 77, IND 101	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.75,0.87,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
SAC 99, LAL 108	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.95,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
VAN 100, GSW 112	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.1%