NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	72		Excitement	4.0 [991]		MVP	Brian Shaw (LAL): +8.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	111		Comeback	1.0 [935]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -14.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	18	57%	0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Malik Rose	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shawnelle Scott	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	14	49%	-0.02	1	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Danny Ferry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Anderson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.12	0.00	-0.06	8	11%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	6	42%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.23	-0.01	-0.09	14	25%	-0.08	3	-0.06	8	37%	-0.05

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.00	0.02	3	133%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	7	69%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	23	64%	0.07	4	-0.07	9	33%	-0.07
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	13	48%	0.01	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.00	0.09	27	57%	0.02	3	-0.07	9	67%	-0.02
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.14	-0.01	-0.07	10	10%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	-0.02	-0.06	5	17%	-0.04	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	3.3	35.3	20.8	28.7	3.0	28.2	145.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +41.2%

SAS -1.8%

LAL +21.1%

SAS -13.1%

LAL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	15.8	15.5	15.5	78.3	120.7	100.9
season	15.9	15.6		103.4	106.8
opponent	15.2	15.5		101.8	96.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.2	15.5	15.3	17.4	15.8
LAL	16.1	15.1	13.5	17.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Kerr	17	15	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.08	-1	-38	37	15.5	15.8	-0.30	14.0	15.8	-1.83
Malik Rose	24	23	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.34	-10	-29	19	17.2	15.2	2.00	19.0	14.4	4.68
Shawnelle Scott	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	-34	29	18.8	15.6	3.28	12.3	15.8	-3.42
Samaki Walker	10	10	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.21	-7	-32	25	17.6	15.5	2.05	14.8	15.6	-0.82
Avery Johnson	46	45	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.24	-16	-23	7	15.7	15.8	-0.15	16.0	15.0	1.00
Terry Porter	32	33	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.08	-12	-27	15	15.7	15.8	-0.13	15.0	15.8	-0.88
Derek Anderson	57	56	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.55	-29	-10	-19	16.1	15.3	0.78	14.9	16.5	-1.59
Danny Ferry	45	46	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.52	-30	-9	-21	15.6	15.9	-0.29	16.2	14.9	1.28
Tim Duncan	75	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.39	-27	-12	-15	15.8	15.8	0.01	15.7	14.7	0.95
Antonio Daniels	86	86	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-34	-5	-29	15.6	18.8	-3.28	15.8	12.3	3.42
David Robinson	62	63	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	0.16	-24	-15	-9	14.9	17.6	-2.66	14.6	17.7	-3.10

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Fox	71	70	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.53	36	3	33	15.6	15.3	0.26	15.2	17.6	-2.39
Kobe Bryant	75	77	0.52	-0.02	0.53	-0.31	28	11	17	15.7	14.6	1.09	15.6	16.4	-0.75
Derek Fisher	70	70	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.48	32	7	25	15.8	14.6	1.18	15.9	15.3	0.60
Shaquille O'Neal	69	69	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.29	21	18	3	15.0	17.1	-2.13	15.6	16.2	-0.54
Robert Horry	64	65	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.57	30	9	21	16.3	13.9	2.41	16.0	15.2	0.78
Horace Grant	39	37	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.15	15	24	-9	15.6	15.5	0.05	15.8	15.8	0.02
Mark Madsen	12	13	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.25	11	28	-17	14.6	15.7	-1.09	15.3	15.8	-0.54
Tyronn Lue	22	22	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.19	8	31	-23	14.6	15.8	-1.18	15.3	15.9	-0.60
Devean George	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	34	-29	12.9	15.8	-2.90	18.8	15.6	3.28
Brian Shaw	31	31	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.31	9	30	-21	15.5	15.5	-0.02	16.8	15.3	1.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 81, LAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
MIA 80, LAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	96.4%
DEN 111, LAC 132	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.84,0.84,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%