NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	99		Excitement	5.4 [714]		MVP	Steven Smith (POR): +10.8%
Portland Trail Blazers	86		Comeback	1.8 [368]		LVP	Rasheed Wallace (POR): -23.2%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	12	59%	0.08	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Devean George	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	150%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.02	0.04	-0.04	17	57%	0.10	3	-0.04	10	70%	-0.01
Horace Grant	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	56%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Tyronn Lue	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	6	57%	0.04	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Rick Fox	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	9	57%	0.02	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Robert Horry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	23	42%	-0.05	3	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.03	-0.04	16	66%	0.19	4	-0.08	6	100%	0.04
Arvydas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	10	60%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	22	52%	0.08	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Will Perdue	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Detlef Schrempf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Pippen	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.16	-0.03	-0.01	13	26%	-0.10	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.19	-0.04	0.01	19	22%	-0.20	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.9	1.8	30.1	20.8	27.1	2.8	26.3	136.8
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +25.6%

LAL +8.0%

POR -1.2%

LAL +15.5%

LAL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	POR	NBA	LAL	POR	NBA
this game	15.0	14.6	15.5	101.0	88.7	100.9
season	15.6	15.8		106.8	103.9
opponent	15.8	15.2		100.3	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.5	12.2	16.5	16.2	15.0
POR	13.9	14.0	15.5	15.1	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	59	57	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.05	17	-4	21	13.9	16.5	-2.59	14.3	14.9	-0.63
Shaquille O'Neal	89	89	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.04	16	-3	19	15.3	12.1	3.16	14.8	11.4	3.47
Kobe Bryant	84	84	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.03	16	-3	19	15.4	12.5	2.89	15.3	9.9	5.35
Derek Fisher	81	80	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.12	12	1	11	15.0	14.9	0.12	14.5	14.9	-0.47
Rick Fox	61	63	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.03	6	7	-1	16.1	13.2	2.88	15.0	13.8	1.22
Brian Shaw	39	39	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	10	-7	12.5	16.6	-4.14	14.1	14.9	-0.76
Tyronn Lue	15	13	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.00	3	10	-7	14.6	15.0	-0.45	13.0	14.8	-1.80
Horace Grant	47	47	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	16	-19	16.0	14.0	1.96	14.6	14.5	0.16
Mark Madsen	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	15	-17	17.3	14.9	2.43	9.5	14.7	-5.16
Devean George	12	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	16	-19	13.3	15.2	-1.88	10.3	15.1	-4.83

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Perdue	1	2	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.00	-2	-11	9	3.0	14.7	-11.68	0.5	15.3	-14.78
Damon Stoudamire	88	89	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.14	-1	-12	11	14.7	12.7	2.08	15.7	8.2	7.44
Antonio Harvey	16	16	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-8	3	11.9	15.1	-3.21	14.6	15.1	-0.50
Detlef Schrempf	24	25	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-6	-1	14.0	14.8	-0.80	13.6	15.5	-1.91
Scottie Pippen	73	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	-10	-3	-7	14.6	14.5	0.13	15.2	14.4	0.80
Arvydas Sabonis	79	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	-2	-9	15.2	11.8	3.41	15.4	13.6	1.73
Greg Anthony	23	25	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.04	-11	-2	-9	14.7	14.5	0.18	13.9	15.3	-1.42
Steven Smith	87	87	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.10	-10	-3	-7	14.5	15.4	-0.94	14.7	17.1	-2.38
Rasheed Wallace	94	95	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.17	-8	-5	-3	14.6	13.0	1.61	15.2	9.3	5.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.15,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 101, MEM 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.41,0.51,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.27,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
NYK 93, PHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.22,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.06,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0	94.6%
ATL 99, POR 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.5%