NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	97		Excitement	7.7 [287]		MVP	James Posey (DEN): +20.4%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	4.5 [690]		LVP	Larry Hughes (GSW): -22.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mookie Blaylock	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.05	0.02	15	64%	0.19	2	-0.09	3	100%	0.03
Sam Jacobson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Young	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bill Curley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	12	42%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Farmer	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	10	60%	-0.03	3	-0.05	10	90%	0.03
Mark Davis	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.03	-0.05	12	43%	0.00	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Jason Caffey	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.17	-0.04	-0.00	6	42%	-0.10	4	-0.10	12	67%	-0.04
Larry Hughes	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.04	-0.04	28	28%	-0.21	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.08	0.01	13	81%	0.26	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.05,-0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.10	0.13	-0.05	19	47%	0.17	4	-0.08	9	89%	0.04
Popeye Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.04	0.02	14	66%	0.09	2	-0.09	7	100%	0.03
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	12	63%	0.11	4	-0.12	6	100%	0.03
Chris Herren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	8	48%	-0.02	2	-0.06	7	43%	-0.05
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	4	38%	-0.10	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.3	32.1	14.8	25.0	2.0	35.2	137.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +63.1%

GSW -4.7%

DEN +15.4%

GSW -27.4%

DEN +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	15.4	13.7	15.2	99.0	105.0	101.7
season	14.7	14.8		97.2	101.5
opponent	15.0	14.7		103.7	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.0	16.7	16.6	14.4	15.4
DEN	12.2	13.3	13.4	16.2	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Jacobson	11	11	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.05	7	-15	22	17.6	15.1	2.52	13.3	13.8	-0.49
Tim Young	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-10	12	10.0	15.6	-5.57	15.7	13.6	2.02
Adonal Foyle	63	64	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.06	-4	-4	0	15.6	15.0	0.62	13.8	13.6	0.24
Mark Davis	73	76	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.11	1	-9	10	15.1	16.3	-1.18	14.1	12.4	1.70
Jason Caffey	86	87	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	-3	-2	15.2	16.9	-1.73	13.6	14.5	-0.86
Tony Farmer	59	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	-2	-4	15.4	15.5	-0.11	13.7	13.7	0.00
Larry Hughes	97	99	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	3	-14	15.5	9.0	6.46	13.6	22.0	-8.37
Bill Curley	14	15	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.32	-7	-1	-6	17.0	15.1	1.87	12.5	13.9	-1.46
Mookie Blaylock	84	86	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.16	-17	9	-26	15.3	16.0	-0.70	13.7	13.8	-0.09

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	82	80	0.91	-0.41	1.33	0.21	24	-16	40	13.4	14.9	-1.51	15.4	15.3	0.08
George McCloud	81	80	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.19	19	-11	30	12.9	17.1	-4.13	15.2	16.3	-1.15
Nick Van Exel	93	91	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.26	10	-2	12	14.1	9.1	4.91	15.5	14.4	1.04
James Posey	71	71	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.18	8	0	8	13.4	14.4	-0.94	15.5	15.2	0.24
Antonio McDyess	55	56	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.24	-4	12	-16	14.1	13.2	0.89	15.7	15.0	0.61
Popeye Jones	5	4	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	7	-6	11.8	13.8	-2.01	15.0	15.4	-0.41
Chris Gatling	33	32	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.17	-5	13	-18	14.9	13.1	1.74	15.2	15.5	-0.22
Chris Herren	25	24	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.12	-7	15	-22	14.6	13.4	1.19	15.2	15.5	-0.25
Keon Clark	25	24	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.10	0	8	-8	12.6	14.1	-1.53	15.0	15.5	-0.53
Ryan Bowen	30	28	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.05	-6	14	-20	14.7	13.3	1.37	15.7	15.3	0.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.3,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.54,0.78,0.9,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 124, SAS 131	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.62,0.48,0.42,0.63,0.69,0.6,0.72,0.86,0.98,1,1,1	93.0%
SAS 106, PHX 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.42,0.56,0.57,0.4,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.81,0.83,0.65,0.67,0.86,0.96,0.99,1,1	92.8%
PHI 81, MIL 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.87,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1	92.7%