NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	124		Excitement	7.3 [335]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +50.4%
San Antonio Spurs	131		Comeback	2.8 [724]		LVP	Roger Mason Jr. (SAS): -9.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marco Belinelli	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.15	0.14	0.00	5	120%	0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.11	0.00	4	83%	0.19	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.03	-0.03	7	76%	0.16	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Sonny Weems	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.06	0.00	2	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.16	-0.01	0.07	16	65%	0.10	2	-0.02	17	88%	0.04
Andrea Bargnani	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	13	61%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	42%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.09	-0.07	0.08	12	74%	0.03	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Jarrett Jack	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	7	50%	0.00	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5	0.50	0.30	0.22	0.01	15	78%	0.56	1	-0.05	16	87%	0.04
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.12	0.03	16	60%	0.20	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.02	3	90%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	-0.01	-0.01	16	56%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	4	70%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	5	47%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
George Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	15	56%	0.05	2	-0.04	9	67%	-0.03
Theo Ratliff	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Hairston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	2.7	36.0	15.7	30.9	2.0	39.0	155.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR -1.6%

SAS +4.7%

SAS +28.5%

SAS +18.4%

TOR -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAS	NBA	TOR	SAS	NBA
this game	14.2	16.6	15.3	130.5	142.4	106.0
season	15.0	15.9		109.6	108.2
opponent	15.1	15.5		103.4	111.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.1	15.6	15.0	11.5	14.2
SAS	15.6	17.2	16.3	17.3	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	25	25	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.01	4	-11	15	15.1	13.9	1.14	15.8	16.9	-1.04
Jarrett Jack	37	37	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-11	15	14.4	14.1	0.31	17.8	15.8	2.07
Andrea Bargnani	74	70	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	-2	-3	14.1	14.9	-0.85	15.6	19.8	-4.17
Rasho Nesterovic	5	4	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-2	-3	16.6	14.1	2.49	13.2	16.7	-3.50
Antoine Wright	50	45	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.10	-7	0	-7	14.5	14.0	0.46	16.3	16.9	-0.52
Amir Johnson	42	43	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.29	3	-10	13	13.9	14.5	-0.69	18.2	15.2	3.03
Sonny Weems	16	14	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.16	-3	-4	1	11.5	14.8	-3.30	18.3	16.3	1.99
Hedo Turkoglu	62	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.11	-9	2	-11	14.7	13.4	1.30	16.0	17.8	-1.80
Jose Calderon	65	61	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.14	-8	1	-9	15.0	12.6	2.35	16.8	16.3	0.46
Marco Belinelli	37	36	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	-3	-1	12.1	15.6	-3.50	16.1	16.9	-0.80
Chris Bosh	62	62	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	-2	-3	14.7	13.5	1.21	16.9	16.0	0.94

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	63	65	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.12	21	-14	35	16.2	17.4	-1.14	13.7	15.5	-1.84
George Hill	68	69	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.31	12	-5	17	16.9	15.9	0.98	14.2	14.4	-0.25
Matt Bonner	65	66	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-3	13	17.5	14.5	3.00	14.0	14.7	-0.69
Antonio McDyess	43	46	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.12	16	-9	25	17.1	16.2	0.89	13.9	14.6	-0.68
Richard Jefferson	69	73	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	-4	15	17.2	14.7	2.54	14.4	13.7	0.73
Theo Ratliff	15	17	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.09	-2	9	-11	16.3	16.6	-0.32	16.8	13.7	3.14
DeJuan Blair	37	35	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	11	-15	17.2	16.2	0.99	15.0	13.8	1.15
Malik Hairston	4	4	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.15	-7	14	-21	8.2	17.0	-8.73	3.7	14.7	-10.95
Keith Bogans	36	37	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.12	-7	14	-21	13.9	18.3	-4.36	13.9	14.5	-0.62
Michael Finley	28	30	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.01	-5	12	-17	15.4	17.1	-1.73	15.2	13.8	1.35
Roger Mason Jr.	32	33	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	-0.02	-10	17	-27	17.5	16.1	1.38	14.8	13.9	0.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.62,0.48,0.42,0.63,0.69,0.6,0.72,0.86,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 97, DEN 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.3,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.54,0.78,0.9,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.0%
MIN 103, WAS 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.87,0.97,0.93,1,1,1	92.9%
NYK 81, TOR 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.48,0.43,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	92.7%