NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	98		Excitement	3.3 [1102]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +10.9%
Los Angeles Lakers	80		Comeback	1.8 [273]		LVP	Rick Fox (LAL): -9.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.01	-0.04	14	63%	0.11	0	0.00	13	77%	0.03
Avery Johnson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	11	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
David Robinson	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	11	56%	0.06	2	-0.03	5	60%	0.00
Terry Porter	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	13	50%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.06	3	37%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.06	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Jerome Kersey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Sean Elliott	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	45%	-0.02	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	64%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	14	53%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	47%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	30	41%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Travis Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	8	24%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	5	20%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	8	35%	-0.06	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	9	36%	-0.04	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.7	30.2	21.5	28.9	2.6	31.6	141.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +46.9%

SAS +10.0%

LAL -12.9%

SAS +6.5%

LAL -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	14.6	16.4	15.2	105.4	86.0	101.7
season	15.5	15.3		101.6	105.6
opponent	15.1	15.4		98.1	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.8	13.8	15.9	13.8	14.6
LAL	17.1	16.8	14.8	17.0	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	65	66	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.02	13	5	8	14.8	14.0	0.85	16.0	17.4	-1.44
Avery Johnson	62	60	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.21	20	-2	22	14.9	13.8	1.08	16.4	16.4	0.04
David Robinson	48	47	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.16	17	1	16	14.2	14.9	-0.68	17.5	15.2	2.31
Tim Duncan	68	69	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.20	17	1	16	14.5	14.8	-0.27	16.2	17.0	-0.77
Jerome Kersey	30	29	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.06	12	6	6	14.5	14.6	-0.14	17.0	16.1	0.89
Sean Elliott	48	48	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.28	18	0	18	14.6	14.5	0.09	16.9	15.8	1.09
Antonio Daniels	50	51	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.00	8	10	-2	13.7	15.6	-1.86	16.6	16.1	0.53
Malik Rose	47	46	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.32	-3	21	-24	15.6	13.5	2.14	14.5	18.2	-3.69
Samaki Walker	24	24	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.02	4	14	-10	13.3	15.0	-1.65	18.3	15.7	2.57
Felton Spencer	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	23	-28	14.7	14.5	0.17	13.6	16.6	-3.04
Jaren Jackson	16	18	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.27	-11	29	-40	14.8	14.5	0.31	15.9	16.5	-0.62

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salley	26	27	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.15	-4	-14	10	15.5	16.7	-1.28	14.9	14.4	0.46
Devean George	13	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-17	16	16.1	16.4	-0.36	13.6	14.7	-1.16
Derek Fisher	20	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-14	10	18.4	15.8	2.56	13.5	14.8	-1.35
Brian Shaw	32	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-10	2	17.1	16.0	1.03	13.7	15.0	-1.28
Rick Fox	40	40	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.02	-8	-10	2	17.3	15.7	1.69	13.3	15.5	-2.12
Travis Knight	38	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-14	10	17.3	15.8	1.48	14.4	14.7	-0.32
Glen Rice	56	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.00	-10	-8	-2	15.5	17.8	-2.27	15.4	13.2	2.23
Ron Harper	56	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.00	-10	-8	-2	15.5	17.8	-2.27	15.4	13.2	2.23
A.C. Green	70	70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	-7	-4	16.1	17.2	-1.05	15.0	13.2	1.84
Kobe Bryant	76	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	-7	-4	16.3	16.6	-0.25	14.7	14.1	0.56
Robert Horry	38	37	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.14	-19	1	-20	16.8	16.1	0.77	13.7	15.1	-1.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 113, NYK 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.18,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
DEN 114, NOH 103	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
NJN 115, NYK 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%