NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	93		Excitement	5.2 [772]		MVP	Horace Grant (SEA): +25.7%
Seattle SuperSonics	106		Comeback	1.3 [1055]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -28.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George McCloud	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.2,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.01	-0.01	16	78%	0.25	4	-0.12	4	75%	-0.00
Chris Herren	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.00	8	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	16	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	7	71%	0.00
Roy Rogers	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	13	48%	0.03	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	6	67%	0.04	3	-0.08	3	67%	0.01
Chris Gatling	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	3	12%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	9	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.19	-0.09	-0.00	16	18%	-0.25	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.06

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.19	0.07	0.00	17	76%	0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.03	0.00	6	100%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.01	0.05	9	75%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.02	8	56%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	31%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	10	36%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Vin Baker	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	7	32%	-0.09	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	20	45%	-0.03	4	-0.11	7	71%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	41.7	2.0	26.4	13.6	25.1	1.7	31.2	141.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +20.0%

SEA +8.7%

SEA +9.9%

SEA +8.3%

SEA +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SEA	NBA	DEN	SEA	NBA
this game	15.2	15.4	15.2	98.9	112.8	101.7
season	14.8	14.9		101.5	103.5
opponent	15.4	15.0		102.6	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.7	13.6	18.8	13.2	15.2
SEA	13.1	16.4	15.5	16.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	4	4	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-15	17	20.0	15.0	5.01	12.2	15.6	-3.33
Chris Herren	38	39	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-17	21	15.1	15.3	-0.16	16.7	14.6	2.10
Roy Rogers	8	8	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.00	-2	-11	9	10.4	15.7	-5.28	15.2	15.5	-0.20
Chris Gatling	14	13	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-8	3	14.6	15.3	-0.66	17.0	15.2	1.81
George McCloud	61	62	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-15	17	15.0	15.6	-0.62	17.1	12.3	4.78
Antonio McDyess	81	82	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	-4	-5	16.0	10.3	5.68	15.4	15.4	0.02
Keon Clark	68	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	-2	-9	14.9	16.1	-1.21	14.8	17.1	-2.30
Raef LaFrentz	50	50	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.06	-18	5	-23	15.4	15.0	0.34	14.4	16.6	-2.13
James Posey	70	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.04	-15	2	-17	15.1	15.6	-0.57	14.8	17.6	-2.81
Nick Van Exel	76	73	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.11	-13	0	-13	15.3	14.9	0.39	15.2	16.1	-0.85

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	84	84	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.09	14	-1	15	15.4	16.0	-0.63	15.3	14.1	1.23
Horace Grant	76	75	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.02	15	-2	17	15.3	15.9	-0.63	15.6	13.8	1.77
Vin Baker	66	66	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.02	13	0	13	14.5	17.7	-3.19	16.2	13.0	3.19
Brent Barry	75	74	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.06	10	3	7	15.5	15.3	0.15	15.0	15.9	-0.89
Ruben Patterson	40	39	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	5	3	13.0	17.2	-4.15	16.1	14.6	1.54
Rashard Lewis	50	50	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.02	8	5	3	16.8	13.9	2.87	14.6	15.8	-1.20
Jelani McCoy	36	38	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.16	1	12	-11	17.3	14.3	2.98	13.3	16.5	-3.25
Vernon Maxwell	29	31	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.17	-3	16	-19	16.1	15.2	0.92	14.8	15.4	-0.59
Greg Foster	14	13	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	14	-15	16.8	15.2	1.59	14.6	15.3	-0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.8,0.91,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 82, NJN 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.74,0.7,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
CLE 91, NYK 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.88,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.89,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.2%
SAS 86, LAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.85,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.91,0.89,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%