NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	84		Excitement	7.4 [350]		MVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): +27.2%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	1.8 [581]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -42.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12	0.03	0.09	-0.00	5	60%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.00	17	60%	0.04	0	0.00	13	92%	0.07
Samaki Walker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.07	0.01	5	90%	0.08	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Antonio Daniels	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Mario Elie	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	9	44%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.42	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.36,-0.42	-0.18	-0.21	0.02	17	41%	-0.28	4	-0.14	12	42%	-0.15

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.06	0.21	-0.00	17	65%	0.38	3	-0.11	6	100%	0.06
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	9	64%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	5	36%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.01	10	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.05
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	62%	0.05	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.03	-0.11	0.00	4	75%	-0.01	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	6	36%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.08	0.01	5	42%	-0.08	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	10	32%	-0.11	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	3.4	32.8	34.0	19.4	0.3	39.5	151.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +37.7%

MIA +0.7%

MIA +19.0%

SAS -4.9%

SAS -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.6	16.7	15.2	96.6	102.3	101.7
season	15.5	15.7		101.6	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.4		98.2	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.4	18.5	14.8	14.9	16.6
MIA	16.8	14.2	16.6	19.4	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Kersey	44	45	0.25	-0.75	1.01	0.11	5	-9	14	16.8	16.3	0.47	18.7	14.5	4.15
Malik Rose	9	10	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-5	6	14.2	16.9	-2.64	22.0	16.0	5.99
Terry Porter	0	1	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-4	4	0.0	16.6	-16.59	0.0	16.9	-16.91
Mario Elie	43	42	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.02	-2	-2	0	16.4	16.7	-0.29	15.8	17.6	-1.76
Samaki Walker	13	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-1	-2	19.3	16.1	3.20	13.5	17.4	-3.93
Antonio Daniels	22	23	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	0	-4	17.5	16.3	1.28	19.3	15.8	3.48
Avery Johnson	65	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.34	0	-4	4	16.3	17.5	-1.28	16.0	18.5	-2.43
Jaren Jackson	44	44	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.37	-2	-2	0	16.7	16.4	0.29	17.6	15.8	1.76
Tim Duncan	81	79	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.38	-2	-2	0	16.4	19.7	-3.31	16.1	23.7	-7.63
David Robinson	71	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	0	-4	16.6	16.3	0.34	17.4	14.2	3.15
Sean Elliott	43	41	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.49	-9	5	-14	16.3	16.8	-0.47	14.5	18.7	-4.15

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	46	51	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.53	10	-6	16	15.7	17.8	-2.09	17.4	15.5	1.85
Jamal Mashburn	75	76	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.48	4	0	4	16.3	19.4	-3.04	16.6	16.8	-0.27
Tim Hardaway	58	61	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.40	4	0	4	16.6	17.0	-0.43	16.5	16.7	-0.21
P.J. Brown	64	65	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	2	0	16.8	16.4	0.40	16.2	17.9	-1.71
Bruce Bowen	32	32	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.22	4	0	4	18.4	15.7	2.65	17.4	16.1	1.35
Dan Majerle	65	66	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	4	-4	16.3	17.9	-1.52	16.2	17.8	-1.55
Anthony Carter	28	26	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	4	-4	17.0	16.6	0.43	16.7	16.5	0.21
Otis Thorpe	31	28	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.04	-2	6	-8	16.3	16.9	-0.60	15.8	17.0	-1.18
Clar. Weatherspoon	31	30	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.15	-2	6	-8	18.3	15.8	2.52	17.0	16.4	0.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 96, BOS 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.76,0.65,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.96,1	93.5%
GSW 89, DEN 97	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.62,0.67,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.91,1	93.1%
WAS 85, MIL 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.73,0.63,0.59,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.58,1	92.2%