NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	89		Excitement	7.2 [348]		MVP	Anthony Goldwire (DEN): +20.2%
Denver Nuggets	97		Comeback	1.3 [624]		LVP	Tony Delk (GSW): -30.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	62%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Duane Ferrell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	2	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,0.04	-0.04	0.08	0.00	9	52%	0.04	0	0.00	13	62%	-0.05
Todd Fuller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	11	57%	0.07	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Gerald Madkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.09,-0.11	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	17	52%	-0.03	2	-0.08	8	100%	0.09
Jason Caffey	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	8	45%	-0.08	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.12	-0.04	-0.11	-0.02	7	50%	-0.10	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Tony Delk	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.12	-0.20	-0.02	8	31%	-0.15	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.01,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.06	0.16	0.02	8	75%	0.22	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	6	108%	0.15	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	2	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	13	59%	0.05	1	-0.04	11	82%	0.02
Dean Garrett	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	5	69%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.02
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	15	57%	0.05	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.03
Danny Fortson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	8	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	24.6	17.4	28.3	2.4	31.2	130.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +74.7%

GSW -5.0%

GSW -28.9%

DEN +10.1%

GSW -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	17.9	15.6	15.6	104.7	111.5	102.5
season	15.6	16.2		92.9	96.7
opponent	15.2	15.0		109.5	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	18.7	17.8	17.8	17.5	17.9
DEN	15.6	15.7	15.7	15.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duane Ferrell	18	18	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-11	14	14.2	18.9	-4.70	18.2	14.9	3.32
Jason Caffey	47	48	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.13	-5	-3	-2	17.5	18.4	-0.94	15.1	16.2	-1.12
Donyell Marshall	41	42	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-5	2	19.3	16.6	2.68	16.6	14.6	2.00
Todd Fuller	8	8	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-4	0	20.2	17.7	2.56	17.9	15.4	2.52
Gerald Madkins	26	25	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	-1	-6	19.0	17.5	1.54	17.4	14.8	2.60
Muggsy Bogues	55	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	-5	2	18.0	17.8	0.20	14.5	17.7	-3.23
Tony Delk	40	42	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.22	-7	-1	-6	17.3	18.5	-1.24	14.0	17.1	-3.07
Erick Dampier	62	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.35	-3	-5	2	19.0	15.2	3.78	15.6	15.6	0.03
Jim Jackson	72	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.30	-5	-3	-2	17.2	22.1	-4.90	15.3	17.1	-1.74
Clar. Weatherspoon	56	56	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.32	-6	-2	-4	17.9	18.1	-0.21	15.9	15.1	0.81

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny Newman	58	55	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.30	6	2	4	15.7	15.4	0.21	16.7	20.1	-3.41
Anthony Goldwire	51	49	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.30	6	2	4	15.8	15.3	0.43	17.3	18.8	-1.57
LaPhonso Ellis	68	65	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.16	7	1	6	15.2	16.8	-1.54	18.3	16.8	1.48
Dean Garrett	59	57	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	1	6	14.9	17.1	-2.19	18.8	16.1	2.77
Cory Alexander	70	69	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.26	1	7	-6	14.8	18.8	-3.95	18.7	14.5	4.22
Joe Wolf	25	25	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.12	3	5	-2	17.5	14.8	2.71	17.0	18.3	-1.32
Bobby Jackson	30	29	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.03	3	5	-2	16.8	14.9	1.85	16.8	18.5	-1.67
Tony Battie	11	11	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	8	-8	19.0	15.1	3.91	14.9	18.4	-3.47
Danny Fortson	42	44	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	8	-8	15.2	16.0	-0.81	18.9	16.9	1.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.62,0.67,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 84, MIA 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.84,1	93.1%
NJN 94, CHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.82,0.81,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.68,0.54,0.45,0.85,1	92.3%
SAC 108, GSW 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.64,0.76,0.77,0.68,0.72,0.63,0.6,0.48,0.54,0.7,0.67,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.74,0.45,0.54,0.67,0.92,1	91.9%