NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	5.8 [653]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +33.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	87		Comeback	1.3 [667]		LVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): -31.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.08	-0.00	12	80%	0.23	2	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.06	-0.04	21	50%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	6	83%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	3	60%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Tim Hardaway	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.01	0.04	11	71%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	9	67%	0.09	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	4	25%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.26	0.08	0.00	20	90%	0.47	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	4	80%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	18	53%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	11	46%	-0.01	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.2,-0.23,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.31	-0.20	-0.11	-0.00	12	17%	-0.18	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.5	24.4	15.4	21.4	2.4	27.5	116.1
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +30.4%

MIL -3.9%

MIA +3.6%

MIA +19.7%

MIA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.4	17.3	15.2	115.1	102.4	101.7
season	15.7	14.9		101.2	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.9		105.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.7	14.8	17.7	18.9	16.4
MIL	15.3	18.0	19.3	17.1	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	65	63	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	1	10	15.9	17.9	-1.95	15.9	21.4	-5.54
Alonzo Mourning	67	64	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.12	12	0	12	16.4	16.5	-0.12	16.1	21.0	-4.84
Tim Hardaway	59	59	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.06	13	-1	14	15.6	18.0	-2.36	17.1	17.8	-0.78
Clar. Weatherspoon	40	39	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	1	10	17.5	15.4	2.18	18.7	16.1	2.66
Anthony Carter	38	37	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	9	-6	17.4	15.6	1.76	18.6	16.3	2.38
Jamal Mashburn	73	73	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.04	8	4	4	16.5	15.5	1.00	17.4	16.7	0.74
P.J. Brown	44	44	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	8	-4	15.6	17.2	-1.58	16.3	18.4	-2.05
Bruce Bowen	25	25	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.11	-2	14	-16	16.9	16.2	0.76	18.7	16.7	1.95
Otis Thorpe	19	21	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	12	-12	16.5	16.4	0.12	21.0	16.1	4.84

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Manning	9	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-9	6	19.7	17.0	2.64	15.2	16.5	-1.30
Scott Williams	27	29	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-14	16	16.9	17.5	-0.56	18.0	15.5	2.49
Rafer Alston	23	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.02	-6	-6	0	19.7	16.4	3.22	15.8	16.6	-0.82
Ray Allen	78	78	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	-6	0	17.1	19.7	-2.62	16.1	18.9	-2.75
Darvin Ham	59	58	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.07	-13	1	-14	16.8	18.4	-1.61	15.8	17.5	-1.71
Ervin Johnson	50	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	-3	-6	17.8	16.6	1.20	16.4	16.4	0.06
Glenn Robinson	68	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.17	-6	-6	0	16.9	18.8	-1.90	16.2	17.1	-0.91
Tim Thomas	41	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.14	-7	-5	-2	18.2	16.5	1.72	16.9	15.9	1.00
Sam Cassell	70	72	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.25	-12	0	-12	16.5	20.9	-4.40	16.6	15.1	1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.38,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.29,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.07,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 92, ORL 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.43,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.36,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0	93.7%
MIA 123, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.36,0.48,0.46,0.36,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.31,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.29,0.18,0.22,0.34,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.04,0,0	93.5%
GSW 103, PHX 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.28,0.33,0.28,0.24,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.42,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0	93.3%