NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	82		Excitement	4.0 [990]		MVP	Mario Elie (SAS): +6.0%
San Antonio Spurs	102		Comeback	1.2 [1211]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -12.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chris Herren	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	8	78%	0.04	4	-0.06	2	100%	-0.01
Chris Gatling	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	22	49%	0.01	4	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	33%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	11	22%	-0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	11	42%	-0.05	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.16	-0.03	-0.06	14	39%	-0.09	2	-0.04	13	62%	-0.04

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	6	73%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.00	-0.05	8	56%	0.05	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	57%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	9	69%	0.04	2	-0.02	8	100%	0.04
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	100%	0.00	1	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Derrick Dial	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	12	43%	-0.01	1	-0.00	6	83%	0.02
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	36%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	7	33%	-0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.16	-0.02	-0.05	14	36%	-0.08	3	-0.05	8	87%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.5	31.4	16.5	27.2	2.4	29.6	133.4
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +18.5%

SAS +7.4%

SAS +11.3%

SAS +5.5%

SAS +7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.2	14.9	15.2	82.8	103.0	101.7
season	14.8	15.5		101.5	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.0		95.9	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.6	13.2	14.5	13.6	14.2
SAS	13.8	16.2	15.4	14.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Alexander	8	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-23	26	12.9	14.3	-1.44	14.3	14.9	-0.61
Popeye Jones	11	11	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-25	30	12.1	14.5	-2.38	16.2	14.7	1.45
Ryan Bowen	23	25	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.13	-7	-13	6	14.2	14.2	-0.04	15.4	14.7	0.63
Chris Herren	25	26	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	-15	10	13.8	14.4	-0.59	15.7	14.6	1.09
Chris Gatling	63	64	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	-14	8	13.7	15.0	-1.25	14.7	15.3	-0.57
George McCloud	66	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.04	-8	-12	4	14.0	14.6	-0.65	14.7	15.2	-0.57
James Posey	80	80	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.06	-13	-7	-6	13.4	17.7	-4.31	14.5	16.3	-1.77
Antonio McDyess	64	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.15	-17	-3	-14	14.9	12.9	2.08	14.5	15.6	-1.07
Keon Clark	42	42	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.08	-15	-5	-10	13.8	14.5	-0.76	15.9	14.1	1.76
Nick Van Exel	60	58	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.02	-13	-7	-6	14.9	13.2	1.69	14.7	15.2	-0.48
Raef LaFrentz	53	52	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.17	-24	4	-28	15.8	12.3	3.50	15.0	14.8	0.15

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	59	62	0.55	-0.05	0.61	-0.09	22	-2	24	15.4	14.1	1.24	14.5	13.8	0.71
David Robinson	60	59	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.10	18	2	16	14.5	15.5	-1.07	15.8	11.8	3.99
Avery Johnson	54	54	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.06	16	4	12	14.7	15.1	-0.45	15.0	13.2	1.80
Mario Elie	50	50	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.13	18	2	16	14.8	15.0	-0.26	14.8	13.6	1.13
Jerome Kersey	57	57	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.23	20	0	20	15.1	14.6	0.43	14.6	13.7	0.85
Sean Elliott	31	30	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.00	5	15	-10	14.1	15.2	-1.15	14.8	14.0	0.81
Antonio Daniels	45	45	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.03	4	16	-12	15.1	14.7	0.45	13.2	15.0	-1.80
Jaren Jackson	53	53	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.06	1	19	-18	15.2	14.5	0.65	13.3	15.3	-2.02
Malik Rose	21	22	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.12	6	14	-8	15.9	14.6	1.29	12.9	14.6	-1.72
Felton Spencer	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	23	-26	14.3	14.9	-0.61	12.9	14.3	-1.44
Derrick Dial	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	25	-30	16.2	14.7	1.45	12.1	14.5	-2.38
Samaki Walker	45	44	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	22	-24	14.2	15.4	-1.22	12.7	15.4	-2.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.62,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.77,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 99, BOS 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.77,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
CHA 95, OKC 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
MIA 81, IND 104	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.77,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%