NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	81		Excitement	3.2 [1125]		MVP	Brad Miller (IND): +9.9%
Indiana Pacers	104		Comeback	1.0 [1275]		LVP	Caron Butler (MIA): -13.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.00	0.03	13	72%	0.10	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	4	80%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	-0.01	-0.08	10	32%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Sean Lampley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	6	65%	0.01	3	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Brian Grant	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	10	37%	-0.04	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Malik Allen	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	7	71%	0.04	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.13	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.01	7	12%	-0.09	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.14	0.01	0.05	9	91%	0.13	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	12	69%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	7	64%	0.05	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.00	0.04	6	72%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamison Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	59%	0.00	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.4	26.6	15.5	28.5	2.3	27.6	128.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +31.0%

IND +6.1%

MIA -2.0%

IND +12.4%

IND +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	18.5	14.6	15.5	93.1	119.5	101.6
season	16.3	15.4		94.6	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.9		99.2	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.7	21.1	18.0	18.3	18.5
IND	14.0	14.9	13.9	16.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	17	16	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-23	23	18.2	18.5	-0.35	16.2	14.3	1.97
Sean Marks	22	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.05	-2	-21	19	17.5	18.8	-1.35	15.3	14.4	0.90
LaPhonso Ellis	42	41	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-21	19	19.2	17.8	1.41	15.0	14.3	0.77
Sean Lampley	42	41	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-20	17	18.5	18.5	-0.01	14.9	14.4	0.44
Malik Allen	25	27	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	-17	11	16.1	19.4	-3.28	15.3	14.3	1.00
Mike James	51	51	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.04	-5	-18	13	18.6	18.2	0.45	14.0	15.6	-1.60
Anthony Carter	29	29	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.10	-14	-9	-5	16.9	19.3	-2.40	15.0	14.4	0.59
Vladimir Stepania	37	36	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.13	-16	-7	-9	19.9	17.4	2.54	13.8	15.3	-1.48
Caron Butler	54	54	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.13	-17	-6	-11	19.0	17.6	1.42	14.7	14.6	0.11
Brian Grant	48	48	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.10	-20	-3	-17	18.4	18.6	-0.19	14.2	15.1	-0.88
Rasual Butler	68	70	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.35	-30	7	-37	18.6	17.8	0.86	14.4	15.5	-1.10

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	52	52	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.18	22	1	21	14.5	14.8	-0.26	18.3	18.7	-0.33
Brad Miller	50	50	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.23	22	1	21	14.6	14.7	-0.15	17.4	19.8	-2.40
Erick Strickland	40	41	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.22	21	2	19	15.1	14.3	0.80	19.0	18.0	1.07
Reggie Miller	47	45	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.06	15	8	7	15.3	13.9	1.38	18.5	18.4	0.15
Jermaine O'Neal	50	49	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	13	-3	14.4	15.0	-0.62	18.3	18.6	-0.26
Ron Mercer	32	33	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.21	13	10	3	12.2	16.0	-3.79	19.9	17.6	2.29
Al Harrington	38	38	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.17	11	12	-1	13.1	15.9	-2.78	19.3	17.8	1.57
Jamaal Tinsley	47	46	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.05	2	21	-19	14.3	15.1	-0.80	18.0	19.0	-1.07
Jeff Foster	20	21	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	22	-21	17.1	13.9	3.25	19.1	18.3	0.84
Primoz Brezec	23	23	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	22	-21	15.3	14.4	0.84	16.7	19.1	-2.34
Fred Jones	21	21	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	23	-23	16.0	14.2	1.79	18.3	18.5	-0.23
Jamison Brewer	15	16	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	26	-29	17.0	14.2	2.85	19.1	18.3	0.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.77,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 99, BOS 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.77,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
CHA 95, OKC 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
DEN 82, SAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.62,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.77,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%