NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	77		Excitement	4.9 [818]		MVP	Theo Ratliff (PHI): +10.8%
Miami Heat	92		Comeback	1.3 [980]		LVP	Aaron McKie (PHI): -16.3%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Theo Ratliff	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.01	0.02	12	77%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Matt Geiger	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	8	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jumaine Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
George Lynch	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	0.02	8	50%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Tyrone Hill	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	10	32%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Toni Kukoc	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.04	16	31%	-0.10	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.05	-0.03	8	25%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.05	0.01	12	52%	-0.02	6	-0.14	3	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.15	0.01	0.06	8	100%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	5	70%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	17	38%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	18	47%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	44%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	16	62%	0.03	6	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.9	2.4	25.5	15.4	25.2	1.8	30.5	121.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +32.6%

MIA +2.9%

MIA +10.8%

MIA +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	17.7	15.2	88.5	107.0	101.7
season	15.0	15.7		99.5	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.5		98.2	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	14.9	15.0	16.5	16.1	15.6
MIA	16.4	20.3	14.8	19.9	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jumaine Jones	4	4	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.02	5	-20	25	13.0	15.7	-2.72	17.0	17.7	-0.74
Kevin Ollie	18	18	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.12	8	-23	31	14.7	15.8	-1.17	19.9	17.1	2.76
Matt Geiger	34	33	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-13	11	15.3	15.8	-0.45	18.0	17.5	0.52
Theo Ratliff	54	54	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-10	5	15.6	15.5	0.08	17.2	18.5	-1.31
Toni Kukoc	50	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.18	-5	-10	5	15.1	16.2	-1.12	19.1	15.8	3.28
Tyrone Hill	59	58	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.04	-11	-4	-7	15.8	15.1	0.67	17.1	18.9	-1.75
Eric Snow	75	75	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.03	-18	3	-21	15.4	16.7	-1.34	17.8	17.1	0.71
George Lynch	64	64	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	0.08	-22	7	-29	15.9	14.8	1.11	17.4	18.6	-1.25
Aaron McKie	77	75	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	0.05	-25	10	-35	16.1	11.5	4.63	17.1	21.6	-4.50

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	78	79	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.00	24	-9	33	17.1	24.0	-6.94	16.1	10.6	5.48
Tim Hardaway	66	67	0.68	-0.18	0.86	-0.08	26	-11	37	17.0	20.0	-2.98	16.0	14.1	1.94
Alonzo Mourning	69	68	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.09	15	0	15	17.3	19.2	-1.83	16.2	13.4	2.78
P.J. Brown	60	60	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.17	19	-4	23	17.0	19.3	-2.35	15.8	15.1	0.65
Bruce Bowen	56	56	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.01	9	6	3	16.7	19.7	-3.01	15.2	16.3	-1.08
Clar. Weatherspoon	47	49	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.17	1	14	-13	19.5	15.5	3.97	15.0	16.4	-1.46
Rodney Buford	26	28	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	14	-13	19.3	17.0	2.29	15.6	15.6	-0.04
Anthony Carter	20	20	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.14	-11	26	-37	20.0	17.0	2.98	14.1	16.0	-1.94
Mark Strickland	8	8	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.06	-9	24	-33	24.0	17.1	6.94	10.6	16.1	-5.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.85,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 97, DET 111	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.87,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.9%
CHA 88, MIL 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.98,1,1	94.8%
BOS 111, GSW 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.73,0.84,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,1,1,1	94.4%