NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	5.0 [800]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +21.5%
Indiana Pacers	96		Comeback	2.0 [266]		LVP	Derrick McKey (IND): -8.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0.21	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.13	0.07	-0.01	18	70%	0.24	1	-0.02	14	64%	-0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.02	0.02	12	75%	0.13	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	16	65%	0.15	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	10	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dan Majerle	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	3	12%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.01	13	70%	0.16	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	16	62%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.12	0.00	0.07	12	79%	0.10	2	-0.05	9	100%	0.05
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	0.02	9	61%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rik Smits	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	10	42%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	3.4	30.6	20.4	26.4	2.5	32.4	142.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +25.2%

IND -2.9%

MIA +22.1%

MIA +3.5%

MIA +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.6	16.1	15.2	114.1	106.7	101.7
season	15.7	15.4		101.2	106.5
opponent	15.1	15.9		101.8	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	14.7	14.5	17.0	15.6
IND	16.6	17.4	16.8	13.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	75	75	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.17	24	-15	39	15.4	16.2	-0.74	16.5	13.9	2.57
Alonzo Mourning	77	75	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.11	20	-11	31	15.7	15.0	0.69	15.9	16.8	-0.87
Tim Hardaway	64	62	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.04	22	-13	35	15.9	14.7	1.19	16.3	15.6	0.68
Dan Majerle	51	52	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.08	19	-10	29	14.9	16.4	-1.56	16.8	15.1	1.68
P.J. Brown	65	62	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.19	10	-1	11	15.4	15.9	-0.44	15.1	18.2	-3.05
Clar. Weatherspoon	24	24	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	10	-11	14.7	15.9	-1.23	17.8	15.4	2.39
Mark Strickland	6	7	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	16	-23	15.0	15.6	-0.62	12.6	16.4	-3.80
Bruce Bowen	31	29	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.20	-13	22	-35	17.2	14.8	2.44	15.2	16.5	-1.34
Anthony Carter	30	29	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.16	-13	22	-35	13.8	16.4	-2.59	15.4	16.4	-0.98
Otis Thorpe	37	35	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.13	-16	25	-41	16.9	14.7	2.25	16.5	15.8	0.71

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Croshere	49	50	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.20	9	-18	27	14.6	17.9	-3.26	16.2	14.8	1.45
Sam Perkins	42	42	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.26	8	-17	25	15.0	17.0	-1.93	16.8	14.5	2.27
Travis Best	37	36	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-13	17	15.4	16.5	-1.10	15.1	15.9	-0.76
Derrick McKey	43	42	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.25	6	-15	21	16.0	16.1	-0.10	17.2	14.2	3.06
Reggie Miller	72	75	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.14	-8	-1	-7	16.2	15.8	0.38	15.2	17.4	-2.18
Mark Jackson	49	51	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.02	-13	4	-17	16.7	15.3	1.44	15.6	15.5	0.16
Rik Smits	48	50	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.02	-17	8	-25	17.0	15.0	1.93	14.5	16.8	-2.27
Dale Davis	41	42	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.03	-18	9	-27	17.9	14.6	3.26	14.8	16.2	-1.45
Jalen Rose	69	72	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.14	-16	7	-23	15.9	16.6	-0.71	15.2	16.9	-1.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.03,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 87, CLE 75	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.57,0.61,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.25,0.28,0.17,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.22,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.14,0.04,0.02,0,0	93.6%
CHA 95, NJN 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.06,0.15,0.21,0.1,0,0	93.6%
CLE 97, MIN 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.27,0.29,0.2,0.17,0.25,0.11,0.01,0,0	93.4%