NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	100		Excitement	4.5 [900]		MVP	Terrell Brandon (MIN): +10.3%
Houston Rockets	86		Comeback	1.3 [796]		LVP	Hakeem Olajuwon (HOU): -11.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrell Brandon	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.00	-0.01	19	60%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.02	-0.02	9	61%	0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Sealy	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.00	6	71%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	16	49%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Wally Szczerbiak	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.02	0.03	13	61%	0.05	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.01
Dean Garrett	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	9	35%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Gray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Miller	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	7	65%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Bryce Drew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	38%	-0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.11	0.00	-0.05	6	31%	-0.04	2	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Carlos Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	12	41%	-0.07	1	-0.00	5	80%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	13	56%	0.01	5	-0.08	8	87%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	9	37%	-0.07	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	9	39%	-0.07	2	-0.04	5	20%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.8	28.1	16.8	26.0	2.0	29.0	127.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +46.8%

HOU -3.0%

HOU -12.2%

MIN +17.9%

MIN +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	HOU	NBA	MIN	HOU	NBA
this game	15.3	16.9	15.2	111.1	96.6	101.7
season	15.1	15.4		103.5	102.4
opponent	14.6	15.7		103.5	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.6	13.5	18.5	16.1	15.3
HOU	15.2	19.2	19.4	14.5	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wally Szczerbiak	69	68	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.01	14	0	14	15.2	15.7	-0.54	17.3	15.5	1.85
Anthony Peeler	55	54	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.02	12	2	10	15.1	15.7	-0.63	15.9	18.4	-2.45
Joe Smith	41	40	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.06	12	2	10	14.0	16.4	-2.39	15.9	17.7	-1.70
Malik Sealy	52	52	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.10	6	8	-2	15.6	14.9	0.75	17.3	16.3	1.01
Dean Garrett	21	21	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.02	8	6	2	15.6	15.2	0.42	19.1	16.2	2.89
Bobby Jackson	23	23	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.05	9	5	4	11.7	16.6	-4.90	17.7	16.6	1.03
Terrell Brandon	71	70	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.18	1	13	-12	16.6	10.6	5.98	16.6	17.8	-1.15
Rasho Nesterovic	38	38	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.06	5	9	-4	15.4	15.2	0.26	17.6	16.4	1.25
Kevin Garnett	67	66	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	13	-12	15.2	15.7	-0.47	16.7	17.6	-0.91
Tom Hammonds	13	13	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.03	2	12	-10	19.1	14.7	4.41	15.3	17.2	-1.85

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Miller	6	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-18	22	11.2	17.3	-6.13	18.7	15.0	3.70
Hakeem Olajuwon	42	43	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.16	4	-18	22	17.9	16.0	1.88	15.8	14.9	0.94
Devin Gray	26	26	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-10	6	18.2	16.3	1.90	15.2	15.4	-0.21
Cuttino Mobley	36	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.12	-1	-13	12	15.4	17.9	-2.52	16.8	14.3	2.47
Bryce Drew	34	36	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.13	-1	-13	12	16.9	16.9	-0.06	14.6	15.8	-1.19
Carlos Rogers	50	50	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	-9	4	17.0	16.7	0.30	15.1	15.5	-0.45
Moochie Norris	50	50	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	-9	4	17.0	16.7	0.30	15.1	15.5	-0.45
Kenny Thomas	50	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-9	-5	-4	16.9	16.9	-0.06	16.2	14.2	2.03
Kelvin Cato	30	31	-0.39	-0.12	-0.27	0.26	-22	8	-30	16.5	17.1	-0.64	12.7	16.7	-3.95
Steve Francis	66	67	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.04	-15	1	-16	16.5	17.9	-1.32	14.5	17.7	-3.16
Shandon Anderson	55	54	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.03	-16	2	-18	17.5	15.8	1.72	16.0	14.2	1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.05,0.12,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 115, POR 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.23,0.22,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.03,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0	95.0%
ATL 100, CLE 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.22,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	94.9%
BKN 95, BOS 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.9%