NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	88		Excitement	6.2 [572]		MVP	P.J. Brown (MIA): +14.3%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	1.3 [1099]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -22.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keon Clark	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.03	0.03	17	68%	0.15	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.04
George McCloud	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	4	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	62%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	7	53%	-0.02	2	-0.01	5	60%	-0.03
Chris Gatling	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	13	47%	0.02	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Chris Herren	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.07	-0.03	22	37%	-0.17	0	0.00	8	37%	-0.05
Nick Van Exel	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.19	-0.07	-0.03	11	12%	-0.18	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.00	9	82%	0.18	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.07	-0.05	22	49%	0.17	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	8	65%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	37%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	4	45%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.04
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	19	58%	0.04	2	-0.06	10	80%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Harold Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	0	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	6	29%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.0	33.8	14.8	27.0	1.8	33.2	139.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.1%

MIA +12.9%

DEN -5.2%

DEN -3.4%

MIA +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	16.5	15.2	95.7	107.9	101.7
season	14.8	15.7		101.5	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.0		98.2	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.7	14.3	16.0	15.5	15.4
MIA	14.3	17.8	16.0	17.9	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	12	11	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.05	0	-8	8	13.8	15.6	-1.78	16.6	16.4	0.20
Chris Gatling	56	55	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-7	6	14.8	16.3	-1.47	16.3	16.7	-0.44
Chris Herren	36	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-5	2	13.4	16.7	-3.32	16.6	16.4	0.28
Popeye Jones	4	3	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-5	2	21.2	15.1	6.14	15.0	16.5	-1.51
James Posey	77	74	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-8	8	15.3	15.6	-0.26	17.1	13.3	3.84
George McCloud	23	23	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-7	6	14.1	15.8	-1.67	15.2	16.9	-1.74
Raef LaFrentz	33	33	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-3	-2	16.8	14.6	2.24	16.4	16.5	-0.11
Keon Clark	78	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-4	0	15.8	12.9	2.89	16.3	17.1	-0.72
Nick Van Exel	72	69	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.20	-12	4	-16	16.2	12.5	3.62	16.6	16.1	0.40
Antonio McDyess	69	67	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	3	-14	15.3	15.7	-0.36	16.3	16.8	-0.47

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	57	61	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.13	14	-6	20	16.0	17.2	-1.18	15.9	14.4	1.50
Bruce Bowen	36	37	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.19	7	1	6	16.7	16.3	0.35	14.1	16.2	-2.13
Jamal Mashburn	82	84	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.14	8	0	8	16.2	19.1	-2.91	15.7	12.5	3.15
P.J. Brown	57	60	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.23	5	3	2	16.8	15.8	0.96	15.8	14.6	1.16
Dan Majerle	64	67	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.22	5	3	2	16.5	16.3	0.25	15.4	15.2	0.25
Tim Hardaway	58	59	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.10	7	1	6	16.3	16.8	-0.58	15.8	14.7	1.07
Anthony Carter	32	34	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	6	-4	16.7	16.3	0.45	14.3	16.0	-1.77
Mark Strickland	35	35	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.03	1	7	-6	16.5	16.4	0.14	15.4	15.4	0.03
Harold Jamison	8	7	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.02	-1	9	-10	21.1	16.0	5.12	10.0	15.8	-5.82
Otis Thorpe	16	16	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.10	-8	16	-24	14.8	16.8	-2.01	16.4	15.2	1.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.81,0.73,0.86,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.83,0.88,0.78,0.85,0.85,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 109, GSW 115	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.73,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.83,0.99,0.99,1	93.5%
SAC 111, MEM 117	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.72,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.83,0.69,0.76,0.67,0.64,0.78,0.74,0.62,0.76,0.73,0.9,0.88,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.97,1,1	93.1%
MIA 88, NJN 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.85,1,1	93.0%