NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	5.7 [666]		MVP	Fred Hoiberg (CHI): +15.8%
Chicago Bulls	78		Comeback	1.5 [1070]		LVP	Elton Brand (CHI): -34.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.13	0.02	0.03	11	77%	0.12	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Avery Johnson	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	10	54%	0.03	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
Terry Porter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.03	8	69%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	8	47%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	3	37%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio Daniels	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	8	44%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Mario Elie	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	6	31%	-0.03	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.12,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	14	50%	0.05	5	-0.16	6	50%	-0.02
Jerome Kersey	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	8	22%	-0.09	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.02	-0.01	10	86%	0.16	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Michael Ruffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	7	37%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Randy Brown	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	6	56%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.00	4	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.04
Dickey Simpkins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	6	60%	0.00	4	-0.05	3	33%	-0.01
Chris Anstey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	5	71%	0.04	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Chris Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	11	42%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	2	17%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.00	-0.00	6	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.31,-0.31,-0.33,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.27	-0.10	-0.02	15	29%	-0.15	7	-0.20	5	40%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.0	25.2	17.3	26.5	2.4	30.3	127.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +33.6%

SAS +2.0%

CHI -14.4%

SAS +24.4%

SAS +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHI	NBA	SAS	CHI	NBA
this game	15.9	16.4	15.2	103.4	86.7	101.7
season	15.5	16.5		101.6	91.8
opponent	14.9	15.4		102.3	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.2	14.9	15.7	15.8	15.9
CHI	17.0	18.5	17.0	13.5	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	52	53	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.02	19	-6	25	15.4	16.6	-1.19	17.2	15.3	1.90
Avery Johnson	52	52	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.03	18	-5	23	15.9	15.9	0.08	17.3	15.3	2.04
Mario Elie	53	56	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.03	16	-3	19	15.8	16.1	-0.29	17.2	15.2	1.94
Malik Rose	60	63	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.04	9	4	5	15.8	16.1	-0.34	16.3	16.9	-0.63
Jerome Kersey	43	43	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	6	1	16.2	15.6	0.59	17.0	15.9	1.06
Terry Porter	52	52	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	5	3	15.9	15.9	-0.06	16.4	16.5	-0.10
Antonio Daniels	43	44	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	14	-15	15.6	16.2	-0.55	16.2	16.6	-0.38
Steve Kerr	44	45	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.18	-2	15	-17	16.1	15.7	0.36	14.8	18.0	-3.20
Felton Spencer	30	31	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.05	0	13	-13	16.7	15.5	1.15	14.5	17.5	-2.99
Jaren Jackson	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	16	-19	16.6	15.9	0.73	13.4	16.6	-3.22
Samaki Walker	6	6	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.04	-6	19	-25	16.3	15.9	0.46	19.7	16.2	3.45

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Anstey	24	23	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.12	10	-23	33	12.6	17.8	-5.27	17.7	15.3	2.48
John Starks	20	20	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.08	5	-18	23	17.9	16.0	1.87	16.4	15.7	0.70
Michael Ruffin	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-16	19	13.4	16.6	-3.22	16.6	15.9	0.73
Matt Maloney	17	16	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-16	19	13.2	17.2	-4.03	16.6	15.7	0.87
Will Perdue	32	31	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.11	0	-13	13	16.5	16.4	0.04	15.7	16.0	-0.26
Chris Carr	47	48	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.16	1	-14	15	15.0	18.0	-2.98	16.2	15.6	0.61
Fred Hoiberg	49	49	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-8	3	17.7	15.0	2.65	15.6	16.3	-0.67
Metta World Peace	41	39	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	-5	-3	15.0	17.7	-2.65	16.3	15.6	0.67
Dickey Simpkins	55	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.04	-12	-1	-11	16.8	15.8	1.01	15.7	16.2	-0.44
Randy Brown	45	43	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.17	-17	4	-21	17.5	15.4	2.04	15.4	16.4	-0.96
Hersey Hawkins	51	49	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.02	-18	5	-23	17.4	15.2	2.14	15.6	16.3	-0.67
Elton Brand	64	63	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	0.04	-27	14	-41	17.8	13.2	4.63	15.4	17.2	-1.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 92, GSW 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.2,0.27,0.17,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.8%
SEA 115, ORL 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.2,0.18,0.34,0.22,0.2,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.8%
MEM 119, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.17,0.11,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.24,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.4%