NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	97		Excitement	7.4 [328]		MVP	Steve Nash (DAL): +28.0%
Dallas Mavericks	106		Comeback	5.9 [137]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -22.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Curry	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.06	0.02	8	78%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jerome Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.01	7	55%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Terry Mills	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.02	14	61%	0.04	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
John Crotty	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Christian Laettner	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	19	47%	-0.03	4	-0.08	5	80%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.10	-0.09	0.02	19	40%	-0.07	3	-0.13	2	100%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.27,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.11	0.19	0.02	11	82%	0.34	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.09	-0.01	16	61%	0.21	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.00	11	59%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.01	3	62%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.00	20	49%	0.03	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	8	24%	-0.07	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.09	-0.11	0.02	20	48%	-0.07	5	-0.15	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	28.3	16.7	27.3	1.7	29.0	127.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +41.7%

DET -12.2%

DAL +29.4%

DET -12.4%

DAL +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DAL	NBA	DET	DAL	NBA
this game	14.3	14.7	15.2	97.0	107.1	101.7
season	14.1	14.8		104.2	104.2
opponent	14.8	15.3		104.6	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.5	12.1	14.3	16.7	14.3
DAL	12.7	15.7	12.8	18.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Mills	35	32	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.10	-2	-7	5	13.8	14.5	-0.77	14.2	14.9	-0.72
Jud Buechler	12	11	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-4	-1	14.7	14.2	0.55	13.0	14.9	-1.89
John Crotty	29	27	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	-6	3	13.6	14.6	-1.01	13.8	15.0	-1.24
Jerry Stackhouse	77	77	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.25	2	-11	13	13.7	16.2	-2.53	15.3	12.5	2.80
Christian Laettner	45	46	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-7	5	14.4	14.1	0.32	12.9	16.2	-3.38
Michael Curry	52	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.02	-12	3	-15	15.3	13.1	2.20	14.8	14.6	0.19
Jerome Williams	86	85	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.29	-5	-4	-1	14.0	15.6	-1.60	15.2	11.4	3.78
Grant Hill	81	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.29	-6	-3	-3	14.3	14.3	0.01	15.0	13.3	1.64
Lindsey Hunter	83	84	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.21	-12	3	-15	14.7	12.3	2.38	14.9	13.4	1.50

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	83	83	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.22	13	-4	17	14.5	15.7	-1.28	14.2	14.7	-0.53
Hubert Davis	51	53	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.20	12	-3	15	15.9	13.4	2.53	14.6	13.9	0.71
Steve Nash	62	61	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	3	3	15.0	14.2	0.82	14.1	14.5	-0.31
Michael Finley	95	94	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.20	8	1	7	14.3	24.5	-10.24	14.2	15.8	-1.66
Cedric Ceballos	69	71	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	6	-3	15.1	13.8	1.26	14.3	14.2	0.14
Erick Strickland	69	69	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.06	6	3	3	14.3	15.6	-1.32	14.5	13.8	0.63
Shawn Bradley	47	49	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.06	3	6	-3	13.8	15.4	-1.61	14.0	14.5	-0.45
Greg Buckner	19	20	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.01	-6	15	-21	15.5	14.5	1.05	14.3	14.2	0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.16,0.21,0.46,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.41,0.53,0.78,0.86,0.79,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 106, SAS 110	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.38,0.27,0.19,0.28,0.46,0.38,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.47,0.58,0.83,0.9,0.85,0.94,0.96,1	92.0%
SAS 87, PHX 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.28,0.37,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.43,0.44,0.64,0.47,0.61,0.81,0.79,0.95,0.98,1	91.8%
POR 80, CLE 88	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.26,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.69,0.53,0.66,0.81,0.71,0.86,0.99,1	91.2%