NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	84		Excitement	6.5 [525]		MVP	Nick Anderson (SAC): +9.0%
Sacramento Kings	96		Comeback	2.9 [749]		LVP	Jason Williams (SAC): -19.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keon Clark	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.02	12	63%	0.04	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Roy Rogers	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	13	42%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	30%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	11	54%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Chris Gatling	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	7	61%	-0.00	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.15	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.16	-0.04	-0.05	12	17%	-0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.15	-0.04	-0.01	18	44%	-0.07	4	-0.12	12	75%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.06	-0.01	19	50%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	87%	0.12	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.05
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	6	64%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	11	50%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.05	6	29%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Darrick Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	5	55%	0.01	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.00	0.01	18	48%	-0.02	3	-0.08	10	80%	0.03
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.19	-0.05	-0.05	12	33%	-0.04	7	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.4	28.4	15.3	22.5	1.8	30.2	123.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +45.1%

SAC +3.9%

DEN -6.4%

SAC +4.9%

SAC +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	14.6	14.3	15.2	83.2	98.0	101.7
season	14.8	13.8		101.5	102.9
opponent	14.7	15.0		100.7	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	12.2	15.4	16.1	14.6
SAC	13.7	14.4	14.6	14.5	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Popeye Jones	14	13	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.05	7	-19	26	11.6	15.1	-3.45	13.4	14.5	-1.09
Raef LaFrentz	51	49	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.03	4	-16	20	14.3	15.0	-0.73	13.7	14.9	-1.22
Roy Rogers	2	1	0.07	-0.56	0.63	0.01	2	-14	16	10.0	14.7	-4.71	16.0	14.3	1.69
Bryant Stith	88	87	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-14	16	14.4	16.1	-1.68	13.9	17.5	-3.52
James Posey	61	59	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	-3	-6	14.9	14.1	0.81	13.9	15.0	-1.12
Cory Alexander	75	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-2	-8	15.2	12.9	2.28	14.3	14.4	-0.06
Chris Gatling	43	42	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.08	-11	-1	-10	14.8	14.5	0.35	16.0	13.1	2.93
Antonio McDyess	79	79	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	-1	-10	15.2	12.6	2.53	14.1	15.3	-1.16
George McCloud	36	32	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.17	-13	1	-14	13.3	15.3	-1.99	14.8	14.1	0.77
Keon Clark	56	54	-0.79	0.29	-1.09	-0.18	-21	9	-30	14.9	14.2	0.75	14.9	13.6	1.38

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	91	94	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.14	9	3	6	14.0	18.3	-4.26	14.6	14.3	0.35
Nick Anderson	59	63	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.03	11	1	10	14.2	14.5	-0.31	14.7	14.6	0.10
Scot Pollard	18	20	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.12	7	5	2	15.4	14.1	1.37	14.6	14.6	0.05
Lawrence Funderburke	29	29	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.06	8	4	4	15.7	13.8	1.89	15.0	14.5	0.54
Tyrone Corbin	39	40	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.16	4	8	-4	14.8	14.0	0.74	14.6	14.6	0.06
Peja Stojakovic	59	61	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.01	8	4	4	14.0	14.8	-0.74	14.6	14.6	-0.06
Jon Barry	43	43	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.14	2	10	-8	14.5	14.2	0.33	14.7	14.6	0.06
Chris Webber	86	87	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.01	7	5	2	14.1	15.7	-1.53	14.7	14.0	0.71
Vlade Divac	63	66	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.13	2	10	-8	13.7	15.5	-1.89	14.3	15.2	-0.90
Darrick Martin	3	2	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	10	-8	23.3	14.0	9.29	11.5	14.7	-3.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.42,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.44,0.48,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.98,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 99, DEN 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.69,0.59,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.49,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.98,1	93.1%
CHI 78, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.8,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.84,0.95,1,1,1,1	92.8%
CHI 88, SAS 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.3,0.23,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.6,0.56,0.7,0.84,0.79,0.89,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.1%