NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	88		Excitement	4.8 [867]		MVP	Ime Udoka (SAS): +15.0%
San Antonio Spurs	98		Comeback	3.4 [621]		LVP	Larry Hughes (CHI): -13.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.01	16	64%	0.21	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.02
Lindsey Hunter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.01	17	53%	0.07	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Luol Deng	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	7	62%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	2	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	11	45%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	14	29%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.07	-0.00	3	133%	0.15	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	-0.00	0.07	-0.06	16	50%	0.16	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.06	0.03	8	68%	0.12	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	-0.01	0.02	12	64%	0.10	1	-0.03	9	56%	-0.06
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	67%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	12	33%	-0.04	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	9	30%	-0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.5	30.5	15.4	27.3	1.6	33.0	136.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +19.2%

SAS +14.8%

SAS +8.9%

SAS +0.2%

SAS +6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	SAS	NBA	CHI	SAS	NBA
this game	14.1	16.4	15.5	93.6	103.2	106.4
season	14.8	16.4		106.3	106.6
opponent	15.7	15.7		103.2	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.2	13.6	18.1	11.9	14.1
SAS	15.6	17.7	14.6	17.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	9	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-14	18	8.2	14.7	-6.51	12.1	16.9	-4.76
Joakim Noah	26	28	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.08	2	-12	14	12.8	14.6	-1.80	15.1	16.9	-1.77
Aaron Gray	31	31	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-9	8	14.6	13.9	0.76	15.0	17.0	-2.06
Tyrus Thomas	19	19	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.03	-2	-8	6	11.4	14.8	-3.43	13.8	17.0	-3.14
Derrick Rose	76	75	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.09	-2	-8	6	14.6	11.8	2.81	17.0	14.0	2.99
Drew Gooden	58	57	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.01	-8	-2	-6	15.3	12.2	3.14	17.7	14.3	3.36
Lindsey Hunter	33	33	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-7	4	12.9	14.8	-1.89	17.2	15.9	1.36
Andres Nocioni	17	17	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	-2	-6	14.6	14.0	0.66	15.9	16.4	-0.51
Luol Deng	51	53	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.21	-6	-4	-2	13.1	15.3	-2.16	16.7	16.0	0.73
Larry Hughes	77	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.12	-11	1	-12	14.4	12.9	1.49	16.5	15.5	1.01
Ben Gordon	73	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.05	-15	5	-20	15.1	10.6	4.49	16.2	16.8	-0.52

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	63	64	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.14	24	-14	38	16.1	16.9	-0.87	14.7	12.7	2.02
Matt Bonner	35	38	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.02	20	-10	30	13.4	18.1	-4.64	15.1	13.4	1.72
Ime Udoka	40	37	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	6	-2	16.4	16.3	0.12	13.5	14.5	-1.07
Kurt Thomas	30	30	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.06	10	0	10	18.9	15.2	3.67	14.0	14.2	-0.16
Manu Ginobili	36	36	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.06	7	3	4	14.1	17.8	-3.71	15.2	13.4	1.72
Bruce Bowen	61	60	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.21	1	9	-8	17.3	14.7	2.53	13.5	15.2	-1.72
Roger Mason Jr.	72	71	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	10	-10	17.2	13.7	3.51	13.3	16.7	-3.43
Tim Duncan	56	54	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	7	-4	16.2	16.6	-0.39	15.0	12.9	2.06
Anthony Tolliver	1	1	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	10	-10	5.0	16.5	-11.48	22.0	14.0	7.98
Fabricio Oberto	34	32	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.12	-11	21	-32	15.1	17.0	-1.93	12.4	15.0	-2.63
Michael Finley	51	51	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.02	-7	17	-24	17.1	15.5	1.51	13.6	14.7	-1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.3,0.23,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.6,0.56,0.7,0.84,0.79,0.89,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 107, LAL 127	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.71,0.81,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	92.9%
MEM 93, DAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.6,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.95,0.97,1,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,0.98,1	92.7%
MIL 95, CHI 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.68,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.86,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.97,1,1,1,1	92.6%