NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	95		Excitement	5.7 [694]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +8.7%
Chicago Bulls	108		Comeback	1.7 [830]		LVP	Luke Ridnour (MIL): -12.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.13	-0.00	0.08	19	65%	0.13	2	-0.08	8	75%	-0.01
Malik Allen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	7	71%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	4	90%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Bell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	7	43%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	17	39%	-0.04	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	7	44%	-0.01	5	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.08	0.05	12	64%	0.14	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	7	68%	0.09	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.03	0.02	10	62%	0.10	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	13	66%	0.16	4	-0.13	6	83%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	10	54%	0.05	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.01
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	58%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Derrick Rose	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	9	44%	0.00	4	-0.08	7	71%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.5	35.4	14.7	25.3	2.4	32.4	140.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +28.6%

CHI +10.9%

CHI +2.4%

CHI +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	15.7	15.4	15.5	103.3	116.1	106.4
season	15.0	14.8		104.9	106.3
opponent	15.7	15.6		107.2	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.9	14.8	15.1	17.5	15.7
CHI	14.8	13.4	14.9	19.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	19	20	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-16	19	14.7	16.0	-1.22	12.9	16.1	-3.16
Luke Ridnour	59	59	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	-9	5	15.5	16.1	-0.55	14.1	17.8	-3.73
Richard Jefferson	72	75	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-9	5	15.8	15.3	0.46	15.4	15.5	-0.09
Andrew Bogut	49	51	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-10	7	16.1	15.3	0.80	16.0	14.8	1.22
Luc Mbah a Moute	49	49	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.18	-2	-11	9	15.0	16.6	-1.60	17.1	13.5	3.62
Dan Gadzuric	29	27	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.07	-11	-2	-9	14.7	16.2	-1.48	14.9	15.7	-0.76
Michael Redd	74	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-8	3	16.1	14.1	2.05	15.4	15.7	-0.32
Malik Allen	38	39	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.05	-13	0	-13	17.4	14.5	2.97	14.2	16.3	-2.11
Tyronn Lue	28	27	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.09	-13	0	-13	15.7	15.7	0.01	14.9	15.6	-0.71
Charlie Bell	43	44	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.12	-13	0	-13	15.1	16.2	-1.11	17.7	13.4	4.32

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andres Nocioni	36	37	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.08	16	-3	19	13.4	16.7	-3.24	17.7	14.4	3.34
Ben Gordon	49	48	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.10	13	0	13	15.6	15.3	0.30	16.7	14.7	2.01
Kirk Hinrich	51	50	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.16	8	5	3	14.8	16.2	-1.43	15.5	16.0	-0.50
Joakim Noah	36	37	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	5	3	13.7	16.5	-2.83	17.4	14.6	2.84
Luol Deng	69	68	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.11	7	6	1	16.3	12.8	3.50	14.9	18.1	-3.27
Derrick Rose	62	62	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	6	1	15.4	15.5	-0.18	15.9	15.3	0.65
Tyrus Thomas	81	79	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	10	-7	15.5	14.7	0.88	15.5	16.9	-1.42
Drew Gooden	57	55	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.01	5	8	-3	16.5	13.7	2.83	14.6	17.4	-2.84
Thabo Sefolosha	24	24	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.00	-2	15	-17	16.7	15.0	1.67	13.7	16.4	-2.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.68,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.86,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 88, MIL 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.63,0.44,0.56,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
CHI 86, PHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.6,0.79,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,1	94.1%
GSW 87, SAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.83,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%