NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	87		Excitement	5.4 [712]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (SAC): +15.6%
Sacramento Kings	97		Comeback	1.5 [897]		LVP	Andrew DeClercq (GSW): -10.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Melvin Booker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	7	60%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Ray Owes	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Joe Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	10	40%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	16	63%	0.08	6	-0.15	6	100%	0.03
Felton Spencer	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Price	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	9	44%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.02	-0.05	9	30%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Chris Mullin	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	6	48%	-0.03	4	-0.07	9	78%	0.01
Andrew DeClercq	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	7	39%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.04

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.16	-0.01	-0.00	13	86%	0.24	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	12	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	9	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Salvadori	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	3	12%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	11	32%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Hurley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	8	39%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	18	54%	0.06	5	-0.12	5	80%	-0.01
Olden Polynice	0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	10	30%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.7	27.0	15.5	22.4	2.4	26.5	119.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +21.6%

GSW -1.1%

SAC +16.7%

SAC +13.8%

GSW -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAC	NBA	GSW	SAC	NBA
this game	15.0	14.4	15.6	88.8	99.0	104.4
season	15.0	15.4		104.4	102.4
opponent	15.4	15.4		106.0	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.7	14.1	17.0	14.5	15.0
SAC	14.7	14.2	13.8	14.9	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Mullin	46	47	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-13	16	15.0	15.1	-0.10	13.7	14.9	-1.18
Ray Owes	8	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-14	18	11.0	15.4	-4.39	15.7	14.3	1.46
Todd Fuller	53	53	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.15	3	-13	16	14.3	15.8	-1.50	14.5	14.2	0.21
Andrew DeClercq	44	43	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-12	14	14.0	15.9	-1.87	14.7	14.1	0.61
Mark Price	54	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.02	-7	-3	-4	15.0	15.1	-0.15	14.7	13.9	0.82
Joe Smith	60	61	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.11	-10	0	-10	15.2	14.7	0.52	13.9	15.1	-1.16
Latrell Sprewell	78	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	2	-14	15.5	13.0	2.49	14.3	14.8	-0.54
Felton Spencer	39	39	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.02	-15	5	-20	16.8	13.8	2.97	14.5	14.2	0.30
Donyell Marshall	52	51	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	3	-16	15.1	15.0	0.10	14.9	13.7	1.18

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	63	64	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-1	12	14.8	13.6	1.18	15.9	13.4	2.48
Michael Smith	60	59	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	0	10	14.0	14.9	-0.92	15.1	14.9	0.18
Mitch Richmond	65	65	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	4	2	14.9	13.4	1.50	16.0	13.1	2.88
Corliss Williamson	66	65	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.32	2	8	-6	14.2	14.6	-0.35	14.9	15.4	-0.50
Bobby Hurley	62	61	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.06	13	-3	16	13.9	15.1	-1.19	15.1	15.0	0.09
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	41	40	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.04	6	4	2	14.3	14.4	-0.07	14.0	15.7	-1.74
Tyus Edney	33	34	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	9	-8	14.7	14.2	0.47	14.9	15.1	-0.23
Kevin Salvadori	17	17	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	11	-12	14.2	14.4	-0.22	12.8	15.5	-2.74
Olden Polynice	47	47	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	8	-6	14.4	14.4	0.01	15.1	15.0	0.15
Billy Owens	36	38	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	10	-10	14.1	14.5	-0.39	14.2	15.6	-1.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.83,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 88, CHI 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.86,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%
CHI 86, PHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.6,0.79,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,1	94.9%
DET 110, SAS 120	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.85,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.89,0.86,0.91,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.9%